Economic implications of tourism disruption : a post-COVID-19 perspective for an emerging economy

Abstract

The disruption of the tourism industry by the COVID-19 pandemic had significant economic implications for the global tourism industry. For a tourism-sensitive economy such as South African’s, the pandemic negatively affected both the demand and supply sides of the business ecosystem of the tourism sector, thereby necessitating strategic and policy responses to rebuild and reposition the sector for post-pandemic attractiveness and competitiveness. It is on this thrust that this study examined the economic implications of COVID-19 disruptions in the tourism industry and devised a framework for post-pandemic growth and competitiveness of the industry. With the two broad divides of predictors of tourism business performance, the study investigated the moderating effects of perceived risks and adoption of technology on tourists’ behavioural intentions. Data were collected through a survey by adopting a multi-stage sampling method and were subjected to both reliability and validity tests using confirmatory factor analysis. The Structural Equation Modelling statistical method was used to conduct the moderation analysis. Results showed a significant decline in tourism contributions to the South African economy, four out of six COVID-19-induced dimensions of perceived risks having a negative moderating influence on tourists’ behavioural intentions towards South Africa, while technology adoption in the tourism space positively moderated tourists’ intentions to visit South Africa. The study concluded that technological adoption in the tourism industry has the potential of reversing the negative influence of COVID-19-induced risks and, therefore, improve South Africa’s destination attractiveness and competitiveness. It recommends, among others, that tourism destination managers and policymakers put policies in place to improve the adoption of innovative technologies across South Africa’s tourism value chain.