Understanding mode choice patterns for sustainable public transport in Namibia : is "formal" public transport a viable option?

Abstract

This study examines mode choice patterns along the MR92 corridor in northern Namibia to evaluate the potential demand for formal public transport and to understand the factors inhibiting its uptake, including the influence of cost and travel time on commuters’ choices. A mixed-methods approach was adopted, combining stated preference (SP) surveys, origin-destination (O-D) surveys, and interviews. The SP survey quantified the proportion of users for whom formal public transport (e.g. buses or shuttles) is a viable alternative to the current informal taxis. The O-D survey captured actual travel patterns and distances, and interviews provided qualitative insights into commuters’ preferences and concerns. The results show that only about 46.2 % of current public transport users would be willing to shift to “formal” public transport under the given conditions, reflecting significant barriers to adoption. Key factors such as travel cost, accessibility, convenience, comfort, hygiene, personal attitudes, socio-demographics, travel behaviour, and climatic conditions significantly influence mode choice decisions. Although informal taxis remain the preferred mode for most (due to their high frequency and convenience), the findings suggest that with targeted improvements, such as reduced travel times, increased service frequency, and competitive fares, there is an opportunity to encourage a mode shift. The study recommends planning interventions and service improvements to enhance the viability of formal public transport in the Namibian context, while acknowledging practical challenges like financial sustainability and commuter trade-offs between cost, convenience, and safety.