Predictability of economic slowdowns in advanced countries over eight centuries: the role of climate risks
| dc.contributor.author | Gupta, Rangan | |
| dc.contributor.author | Nel, Jacobus | |
| dc.contributor.author | Salisu, Afees A. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Ji, Qiang | |
| dc.contributor.email | rangan.gupta@up.ac.za | en_US |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2023-09-20T10:12:15Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2023-06 | |
| dc.description | DATA AVAILABILITY : Data will be made available on request. | en_US |
| dc.description.abstract | We analyze the predictive content of climate risks, proxied by change in global temperature anomaly and its volatility, on a dummy variable capturing periods of zero and negative growth rates of eight industrialized countries. In this regard, we apply a Probit model to longest possible historical datasets available for these countries covering 1311 till 2020, and control for inflation and interest rates. We find strong evidence that changes in global temperature anomaly and/or its stochastic volatility in particular, tend to predict slowdown or stagnation in all the eight economies at the different predictive horizons considered. | en_US |
| dc.description.department | Economics | en_US |
| dc.description.embargo | 2024-04-13 | |
| dc.description.librarian | hj2023 | en_US |
| dc.description.sponsorship | The National Natural Science Foundation of China. | en_US |
| dc.description.uri | https://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl | en_US |
| dc.identifier.citation | Gupta, R., Nel, J., Salisu, A.A. et al. 2023, 'Predictability of economic slowdowns in advanced countries over eight centuries: the role of climate risks', Finance Research Letters, vol. 54, art. 103795, pp. 1-5, doi : 10.1016/j.frl.2023.103795. | en_US |
| dc.identifier.issn | 1544-6123 (print) | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 1544-6131 (online) | |
| dc.identifier.other | 10.1016/j.frl.2023.103795 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2263/92337 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | en_US |
| dc.publisher | Elsevier | en_US |
| dc.rights | © 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Notice : this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Finance Research Letters. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. A definitive version was subsequently published in Finance Research Letters, vol. 54, art. 103795, pp. 1-5, 2023, doi : 10.1016/j.frl.2023.103795. | en_US |
| dc.subject | Growth | en_US |
| dc.subject | Climate risks | en_US |
| dc.subject | Probit model | en_US |
| dc.subject | Predictions | en_US |
| dc.subject | SDG-08: Decent work and economic growth | en_US |
| dc.title | Predictability of economic slowdowns in advanced countries over eight centuries: the role of climate risks | en_US |
| dc.type | Postprint Article | en_US |