The role of rolling forecasts in high environmental uncertainty

Abstract

With businesses operating in an environment of uncertainty, questions were raised around the role of rolling forecasts in this environment and how the current financial processes have changed as a result of the uncertainty. There are currently debates regarding the role of budgeting and other planning methods, one of which is rolling forecasts. One school of thought believes that budgets are no longer relevant in current times and should be replaced with newer methods, whereas the second school of thought believes that budgets are still current and relevant. Having experienced a global financial crisis, the current time can be described as one of uncertainty. Banks were one of the industries hardest hit by this crisis. This research investigates whether the financial planning processes in banks has changed to align itself with an environment of uncertainty. It further explores whether banks have adopted rolling forecasts in their planning processes. Data was collected using expert interviews. The sample included 8 respondents across 3 different banks. The data was then analysed using content analysis. The outcome allowed for visibility into the changes made by banks in their financial planning processes. Insights into the reasons why rolling forecasts were not used was also obtained. Uncertainty in the environment resulted in banks making changes to their financial planning processes. It also emerged that none of the respondents use rolling forecasts. However some of the respondents use forecasting models which are based on some principles of rolling forecast. This research contributes to the budgeting and planning discipline. It contributes by exploring how the budget process is changing to align itself with the changing environment. It also contributes by providing insights into why rolling forecasts are not adopted.