An analysis of past and future heatwaves based on a heat‑associated mortality threshold : towards a heat health warning system

dc.contributor.authorKapwata, Thandi
dc.contributor.authorGebreslasie, Michael T.
dc.contributor.authorWright, Caradee Yael
dc.date.accessioned2023-06-09T12:51:36Z
dc.date.available2023-06-09T12:51:36Z
dc.date.issued2022-11-19
dc.descriptionAdditional file 1. Full names of codes used for districts.en_US
dc.descriptionAdditional file 2. Heatwave characteristics from 2014 - 2019 as defined using threshold of 12.8 oC and duration of two days or more.en_US
dc.descriptionAdditional file 3. Heatwave characteristics for period 2020 – 2039 using data simulated from RCP 4.5 projections.en_US
dc.descriptionAdditional file 4. Heatwave characteristics for period 2020 – 2039 using data simulated from RCP 8.5 projections.en_US
dc.description.abstractHeatwaves can have severe impacts on human health extending from illness to mortality. These health effects are related to not only the physical phenomenon of heat itself but other characteristics such as frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves. Therefore, understanding heatwave characteristics is a crucial step in the development of heat-health warning systems (HHWS) that could prevent or reduce negative heat-related health outcomes. However, there are no South African studies that have quantified heatwaves with a threshold that incorporated a temperature metric based on a health outcome. To fill this gap, this study aimed to assess the spatial and temporal distribution and frequency of past (2014 – 2019) and future (period 2020 – 2039) heatwaves across South Africa. Heatwaves were defined using a threshold for diurnal temperature range (DTR) that was found to have measurable impacts on mortality. In the current climate, inland provinces experienced fewer heatwaves of longer duration and greater intensity compared to coastal provinces that experienced heatwaves of lower intensity. The highest frequency of heatwaves occurred during the austral summer accounting for a total of 150 events out of 270 from 2014 to 2019. The heatwave definition applied in this study also identified severe heatwaves across the country during late 2015 to early 2016 which was during the strongest El Niño event ever recorded to date. Record-breaking global temperatures were reported during this period; the North West province in South Africa was the worst affected experiencing heatwaves ranging from 12 to 77 days. Future climate analysis showed increasing trends in heatwave events with the greatest increases (80%—87%) expected to occur during summer months. The number of heatwaves occurring in cooler seasons is expected to increase with more events projected from the winter months of July and August, onwards. The findings of this study show that the identification of provinces and towns that experience intense, long-lasting heatwaves is crucial to inform development and implementation of targeted heat-health adaptation strategies. These findings could also guide authorities to prioritise vulnerable population groups such as the elderly and children living in high-risk areas likely to be affected by heatwaves.en_US
dc.description.departmentGeography, Geoinformatics and Meteorologyen_US
dc.description.librarianam2023en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThe South African Medical Research Council.en_US
dc.description.urihttps://ehjournal.biomedcentral.comen_US
dc.identifier.citationKapwata, T., Gebrealasie, M.T., Wright, C.Y. 2022, 'An analysis of past and future heatwaves based on a heat‑associated mortality threshold : towards a heat health warning system', Environmental Health, vol. 21, no. 112, pp. 1-12, doi : 10.1186/s12940-022-00921-4.en_US
dc.identifier.issn1476-069X
dc.identifier.other10.1186/s12940-022-00921-4
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2263/91085
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherBMCen_US
dc.rights© The Author(s) 2022. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.en_US
dc.subjectHeatwaveen_US
dc.subjectDiurnal temperature rangeen_US
dc.subjectThresholden_US
dc.subjectMortalityen_US
dc.subjectHeat-health warning systems (HHWS)en_US
dc.subjectSDG-13: Climate actionen_US
dc.titleAn analysis of past and future heatwaves based on a heat‑associated mortality threshold : towards a heat health warning systemen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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