Can listed property shares be a surrogate for direct property investment behaviour?

Abstract

The listed property sector in South Africa has grown to a size which could be considered to be a good representation of the income producing property market in general. Stock market listed property investment funds offer the opportunity to compare indirect property investment to direct property investment, which could bridge the gap between irrational investment behaviour and intrinsic asset values. This study investigates the relationship between listed property share prices and the property values in listed property funds. The share prices are correlated with various factors, such as the accounting ratios of the companies, the financial statements of the companies and general economic variables. The outcome of the study is an explanation of the behaviour of listed property shares, and its relationship to the direct property market and the general economy. This would assist in the explanation of market behaviour and provides the opportunity to more accurately predict portfolio asset values, which might be used in the valuation of individual real estate assets.