Patterns of animal rabies prevalence in Northern South Africa between 1998 and 2022

Abstract

Rabies is endemic in South Africa and rabies cycles are maintained in both domestic and wildlife species. The significant number of canine rabies cases reported by theWorld Organization for Animal Health Reference Laboratory for Rabies at Onderstepoort suggests the need for increased research and mass dog vaccinations on specific targeted foci in the country. This study aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of animal rabies cases from 1998 to 2017 in northern South Africa and environmental factors associated with highly enzootic municipalities. A descriptive analysis was used to investigate temporal patterns. The Getis-Ord Gi statistical tool was used to exhibit low and high clusters. Logistic regression was used to examine the association between the predictor variables and highly enzootic municipalities. A total of 9580 specimens were submitted for rabies diagnosis between 1998 and 2022. The highest positive case rates were from companion animals (1733 cases, 59.71%), followed by livestock (635 cases, 21.88%) and wildlife (621 cases, 21.39%). Rabies cases were reported throughout the year, with the majority occurring in the mid-dry season. Hot spots were frequently in the northern and eastern parts of Limpopo and Mpumalanga. Thicket bush and grassland were associated with rabies between 1998 and 2002. However, between 2008 and 2012, cultivated commercial crops and waterbodies were associated with rabies occurrence. In the last period, plantations and woodlands were associated with animal rabies. Of the total number of municipalities, five consistently and repeatedly had the highest rabies prevalence rates. These findings suggest that authorities should prioritize resources for those municipalities for rabies elimination and management.