Prioritisation of provinces for African swine fever intervention in South Africa through decision matrix analysis

Abstract

South Africa has experienced an increase in the number of African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in domestic pigs in the last ten years. Intervention will be needed in the form of control and prevention strategies to minimise the impact of this disease in the country. The aim of this study is to prioritise which provinces resources should be allocated to for ASF intervention strategies, based on the risk factors identified as pertinent in South Africa. A multi-criteria decision analysis approach was followed using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method to determine the perceived risk of ASF outbreaks in domestic pigs per province. Nine risk factors applicable to the South African context were identified from literature. Data on the presence of these risk factors per province were collected from records and by means of a questionnaire. The risk factors were weighted by means of an AHP. The decision matrix determined that ASF intervention and prevention resources should be focused on Mpumalanga, Free State and Gauteng provinces in South Africa. Specific intervention strategies should be focused on the confinement of pigs, swill-feeding of pigs and buying/selling of pigs at auctions through a participatory approach with stakeholders.