Modelling potential climate change impacts on sediment yield in the Tsitsa river catchment, South Africa

dc.contributor.authorTheron, Simone Norah
dc.contributor.authorWeepener, Harold Louw
dc.contributor.authorLe Roux, Jacobus Johannes
dc.contributor.authorEngelbrecht, Christina Johanna
dc.date.accessioned2022-04-14T11:21:55Z
dc.date.available2022-04-14T11:21:55Z
dc.date.issued2021-01
dc.description.abstractThe effects of climate change on water resources could be numerous and widespread, affecting water quality and water security across the globe. Variations in rainfall erosivity and temporal patterns, along with changes in biomass and land use, are some of the impacts climate change is projected to have on soil erosion. Sedimentation of watercourses and reservoirs, especially in water-stressed regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, may hamper climate change resilience. Modelling sediment yield under various climate change scenarios is vital to develop mitigation strategies which offset the negative effects of erosion and ensure infrastructure remains sustainable under future climate change. This study investigated the relative change in sediment yield with projected climate change using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for a rural catchment in South Africa for the period 2015–2100. Data from six downscaled Coupled Global Climate Models (CGCM) were divided into three shorter time periods, namely, 2015–2034, 2045–2064 and 2081–2100. Results were then compared with a control scenario using observed data for the period 2002–2017. The results show that, if left unmanaged, climate change will likely lead to greater sediment yield, of up to 10% more per annum. Peak sediment yield will also increase almost three-fold throughout the century. The study shows that projected climate change will have multiple negative effects on soil erosion and emphasised the need for changes in climate to be considered when embarking on water resource developments.en_US
dc.description.departmentGeography, Geoinformatics and Meteorologyen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipAgricultural Research Councilen_US
dc.description.urihttps://www.ajol.info/index.php/wsaen_US
dc.identifier.citationTheron, Simone Norah, Weepener, Harold Louw, le Roux, Jacobus Johannes, & Engelbrecht, Christina Johanna. (2021). Modelling potential climate change impacts on sediment yield in the Tsitsa River catchment, South Africa. Water SA, 47(1), 67-75. https://dx.doi.org/10.17159/wsa/2021.v47.i1.9446.en_US
dc.identifier.issn0378-4738 (print)
dc.identifier.issn1816-7950 (online)
dc.identifier.other10.17159/wsa/2021.v47.i1.9446
dc.identifier.urihttps://repository.up.ac.za/handle/2263/84896
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherWater Research Commissionen_US
dc.rights© The Author(s) Published under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Licence (CC BY 4.0).en_US
dc.subjectSoil erosionen_US
dc.subjectClimate changeen_US
dc.subjectHydrological modellingen_US
dc.subjectSediment yielden_US
dc.subjectErosivityen_US
dc.subjectSedimentationen_US
dc.subjectSoil and water assessment tool (SWAT)en_US
dc.titleModelling potential climate change impacts on sediment yield in the Tsitsa river catchment, South Africaen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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