An analysis of the impact of different scenarios on the market for stockfeed proteins in South Africa

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to present the results from a study which was done to analyse the operation of the demand for and supply of the most important stockfeed proteins (maize, wheat, sorghum, oilseed and fishmeal). A sectoral mathematical model was developed to analyze the economic impact of changes in the market for stockfeed proteins on the South African animal feed market. The model was used to simulate the effects of arbitrarily chosen scenarios on key parameters. Results indicate that models, such as these, are indispensable planning tools in situations of uncertainty. Relatively small changes in important things like production costs, yields and international prices often have profound influences on local production patterns and profitability. It clearly illustrates that in an environment of free domestic trade and increased international trade liberalisation, factors outside of agricultural policy may have much larger impacts than agricultural policy.