The effectiveness of the Continental Early Warning System in the African Peace and Security Architecture

Abstract

This article examines the effectiveness of the African Union (AU) Continental Early Warning System (CEWS) in its role in the prevention of conflict in Africa stemming particularly from unconstitutional changes of government and elections. In exploring this, regard is paid to the following conflict case studies: Kenya (2007), Guinea Bissau (2012) and Burundi (2015). In assessing the effectiveness of the CEWS, the article explores its operations and how well it is able to gather holistic early warning information in relation to conflicts before they emerge, liaising with Regional Economic Communities and academic institutions, think tanks and other entities. It also looks at how well the CEWS is able to swiftly relay the said early warning information to critical decision making bodies within the African Peace and Security Architecture such as the AU Peace and Security Council as well as the Chairperson of the AU Commission to prevent the conflict from emerging.