Impacts of retaliatory tariffs on farm income and government programs

Abstract

Retaliatory tariffs imposed by trading partners have had major impacts on U.S. commodity markets. As detailed in other articles in this theme issue, these tariffs have reduced U.S. exports and resulted in lower domestic commodity prices. These changes have important implications for farmers, taxpayers, and others with a stake in U.S. agriculture. We use estimates of the commodity market impacts of retaliatory tariffs to estimate implications for farm income, government farm program outlays, and other indicators. The results highlight the importance of considering effects that extend across markets, such as how a change in soybean exports and prices may affect producers of corn, chickens, and other commodities. They also provide a reminder that the current suite of farm policies includes a mix of countercyclical and procyclical programs.