Forecasting with second-order approximations and Markov-switching DSGE models

Abstract

This paper considers the out-of-sample forecasting performance of first- and second-order perturbation approximations for DSGE models that incorporate Markov-switching behaviour in the policy reaction function and the volatility of shocks. The results suggest that second-order approximations provide an improved forecasting performance in models that do not allow for regime-switching, while for the MS-DSGE models, a first-order approximation would appear to provide better out-of-sample properties. In addition, we find that over short-horizons, the MS-DSGE models provide superior forecasting results when compared to those models that do not allow for regime-switching (at both perturbation orders).