Apparent temperature modifies the effects of air pollution on cardiovascular disease mortality in Cape Town, South Africa

Abstract

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the top cause of mortality and a main contributor to disability globally. The evidence so far is varied on whether cold or heat modifies the CVD effects of air pollution. Weather conditions and air pollution sources and levels are different in different countries. Studies in low-and middle-income countries are lacking. Mortality data were obtained from Statistics South Africa. Air pollution and meteorological data were obtained from the South AfricanWeather Service. A time-stratified case–crossover epidemiological design was applied. The association between air pollutants (PM10, NO2 and SO2) and CVD mortality was investigated using conditional logistic regression models. Susceptibility by sex and age groups was investigated. In total, 54,356 CVD deaths were included in the 10-year study. The daily PM10, NO2 and SO2 levels exceeded the daily WHO guidelines on 463, 421 and 8 days of the 3652 days, respectively. Higher air pollution risks were observed in this study compared to those reported in meta-analyses. In general, the elderly and females seemed to be vulnerable to air pollutants, especially at high and moderate apparent temperature levels. Harvesting effects were observed at longer lags. The results can be used to develop an early warning system for the city.