On the propagation mechanism of international real interest rate spillovers : evidence from more than 200 years of data

Abstract

This article analyzes the real interest rate transmission mechanism across the United States, Japan, France, Germany, Holland, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom over a period of more than 200 years. Based on a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) connectedness methodology, the empirical results suggest that the size of the international real interest rate spillovers ranges between 30% and 75% across the sample period. Furthermore, it is shown that these spillovers increase during crisis periods, such as the two World Wars, the Great Depression of 1929, the 1980 and 1990 recessions, or the Great Financial Crisis of 2009. More interestingly, our findings illustrate the position of each of these eight countries as net transmitters or receivers of monetary policy shocks over time. Our analysis contributes to the debate on whether the conduct of monetary policy in a country should consider its international spillovers, suggesting the need for more coordinated monetary policies especially during periods of economic crises.