Efficient longitudinal population survival survey sampling for the measurement and verification of lighting retrofit projects

dc.contributor.authorCarstens, Herman
dc.contributor.authorXia, Xiaohua
dc.contributor.authorYadavalli, Venkata S. Sarma
dc.contributor.authorRajan, Arvind
dc.contributor.emailherman.carstens@up.ac.zaen_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2017-09-18T12:48:41Z
dc.date.issued2017-09
dc.description.abstractA method is presented for reducing the required sample sizes for reporting energy savings with predetermined statistical accuracy in lighting retrofit measurement and verification projects, where the population of retrofitted luminaires is to be tracked over time. The method uses a Dynamic Generalised Linear Model with Bayesian forecasting to account for past survey sample sizes and survey results and forecast future population decay, while quantifying estimation uncertainty. A Genetic Algorithm is used to optimise multi-year sampling plans, and distributions are convolved using a new method of moments technique using the Mellin transform instead of a Monte Carlo simulation. Two cases studies are investigated: single population designs, and stratified population designs, where different kinds of lights are replaced in the same retrofit study. Results show significant cost reductions and increased statistical efficiency when using the proposed Bayesian framework.en_ZA
dc.description.departmentElectrical, Electronic and Computer Engineeringen_ZA
dc.description.departmentIndustrial and Systems Engineeringen_ZA
dc.description.embargo2018-09-01
dc.description.librarianhj2017en_ZA
dc.description.sponsorshipThe National Hub for the Postgraduate Programme in Energy Efficiency and Demand Side Management.en_ZA
dc.description.urihttp://www.elsevier.com/locate/enbuilden_ZA
dc.identifier.citationCarstens, H., Xia, X.H., Yadavalli, S. & Rajan, A. 2017, 'Efficient longitudinal population survival survey sampling for the measurement and verification of lighting retrofit projects', Energy and Buildings, vol. 150, pp. 163-176.en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn0378-7788 (print)
dc.identifier.issn1872-6178 (online)
dc.identifier.other10.1016/j.enbuild.2017.04.084
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2263/62286
dc.language.isoenen_ZA
dc.publisherElsevieren_ZA
dc.rights© 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Notice : this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Energy and Buildings. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. A definitive version was subsequently published in Energy and Buildings, vol. 150, pp.163-176, 2017. doi : 10.1016/j.enbuild.2017.04.084.en_ZA
dc.subjectMeasurement and verification (M&V)en_ZA
dc.subjectMethod of momentsen_ZA
dc.subjectMellin transformen_ZA
dc.subjectSampling designen_ZA
dc.subjectRetrofiten_ZA
dc.subjectPopulation survivalen_ZA
dc.subjectBayesianen_ZA
dc.subjectBuildingsen_ZA
dc.subjectAlgorithmsen_ZA
dc.subjectEnergy savingsen_ZA
dc.subjectMultivariate data analysisen_ZA
dc.subjectStandard uncertainty evaluationen_ZA
dc.titleEfficient longitudinal population survival survey sampling for the measurement and verification of lighting retrofit projectsen_ZA
dc.typePostprint Articleen_ZA

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