The system dynamics approach as a modelling tool for health care

Abstract

In this dissertation System Dynamics is used as a modelling approach to model health care systems to gain a better understanding of the system’s behaviour. This improved understanding can be used to better manage the system and in turn will translate to improved health outcomes. The characteristics of complex systems were reviewed to define a health system as a complex system. Four appropriate modelling approaches was studied that could be used to model complex systems. These modelling approaches included: Monte Carlo Simulation, Discrete Event Simulation, System Dynamics and Agent Based Modelling. System Dynamics was identified as being the most appropriate modelling methodology to be used for the framework. Before the framework was developed health system performance measurement was reviewed to further the understanding of health system measurement. The framework was developed according to the insights gained from the previous reviews. Specifically the elements identification was customised to the health care environment based on available health indicators. The framework was applied in a case study where a section of the South Africa health care system was modelled to focus interventions for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The outcomes of the case studies delivered an increased understanding of the system behaviour and also showed appropriates of the framework.