Transmission potential of Rift Valley fever virus over the course of the 2010 epidemic in South Africa
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Date
Authors
Metras, Raphaelle
Baguelin, Marc
Edmunds, W. John
Thompson, P.N. (Peter N.)
Kemp, Alan
Pfeiffer, Dirk U.
Collins, Lisa M.
White, Richard G.
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Coordinating Center for Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Abstract
A Rift Valley fever (RVF) epidemic affecting animals
on domestic livestock farms was reported in South Africa
during January–August 2010. The first cases occurred after
heavy rainfall, and the virus subsequently spread countrywide.
To determine the possible effect of environmental
conditions and vaccination on RVF virus transmissibility,
we estimated the effective reproduction number (Re) for
the virus over the course of the epidemic by extending the
Wallinga and Teunis algorithm with spatial information. Re
reached its highest value in mid-February and fell below
unity around mid-March, when vaccination coverage was
7.5%–45.7% and vector-suitable environmental conditions
were maintained. The epidemic fade-out likely resulted first
from the immunization of animals following natural infection
or vaccination. The decline in vector-suitable environmental
conditions from April onwards and further vaccination
helped maintain Re below unity. Increased availability of
vaccine use data would enable evaluation of the effect of
RVF vaccination campaigns.
Description
Keywords
RVF, Epidemics
Sustainable Development Goals
Citation
Metras, R, Baguelin, M, Edmunds, WJ, Thompson, PN, Kemp, A, Pfeiffer, DU, Collins, LM & White, RG 2013, 'Transmission potential of Rift Valley fever virus over the course of the 2010 epidemic in South Africa', Emerging Infectious Diseases, vol. 19, no. 6, pp. 916-924.