Time-varying causal relationship between stock market and unemployment in the United Kingdom : historical evidence from 1855 to 2017

Abstract

The influence of financial markets on the real economy, including that of stock market returns on unemployment, is a key focus in the literature. Using DCC-MGARCH tests, we analyse time-varying causality between stock market returns and unemployment in the UK using monthly data from 1855 to 2017. The tests reveal that there is significant evidence of information spillover between the stock market and the labour market. This information spillover was found to be significant in the direction of stock market returns to unemployment, insignificant in the opposite direction, and significant bi-directionally. The results were also found to be congruent to the macroeconomic history of the UK.