Can leading business cycle indicators predict the direction of the South African commercial share price index?
| dc.contributor.author | Moolman, Elna | |
| dc.contributor.author | Jordaan, Johannes | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2007-10-03T05:46:49Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2007-10-03T05:46:49Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2005-03 | |
| dc.description.abstract | Leading indicators are a popular way to predict turning points in the business cycle. However, since the lead time of these indicators differ, those with a longer lead could potentially also be used to predict turning points in other leading indicators. This paper empirically explores the viability of using leading indicators to predict the turning points of an index of commercial shares on the JSE Securities Exchange. Although share prices are leading the business cycle, other leading indicators that lead the business cycle by a longer period should lead share prices and, therefore, could potentially be useful in predicting the direction of share price movements. | en |
| dc.format.extent | 191573 bytes | |
| dc.format.mimetype | application/pdf | |
| dc.identifier.citation | Moolman, E & Jordaan, J 2005, ‘Can leading business cycle indicators predict the direction of the South African commercial share price index’, South African Journal of Economics, vol. 73, no. 1, pp. 68-78. [http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0038-2280&site=1] | en |
| dc.identifier.issn | 0038-2280 | |
| dc.identifier.other | 10.1111/j.1813-6982.2005.00005.x | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/2263/3650 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | en |
| dc.publisher | Blackwell | en |
| dc.rights | Blackwell. The definite version is available at www.blackwell-synergy.com | en |
| dc.subject | Business cycle indicators | en |
| dc.subject | South African commercial share price index | en |
| dc.subject | JSE securities exchange | en |
| dc.subject | Share prices | en |
| dc.subject.lcsh | Business cycles -- South Africa | |
| dc.subject.lcsh | Economic indicators -- South Africa | |
| dc.subject.lcsh | Stocks -- Prices -- South Africa | |
| dc.title | Can leading business cycle indicators predict the direction of the South African commercial share price index? | en |
| dc.type | Postprint Article | en |