Current and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal prediction

dc.contributor.authorMerryfield, William J.
dc.contributor.authorBaehr, Johanna
dc.contributor.authorBatte, Lauriane
dc.contributor.authorBecker, Emily J.
dc.contributor.authorButler, Amy H.
dc.contributor.authorCoelho, Caio A.S.
dc.contributor.authorDanabasoglu, Gokhan
dc.contributor.authorDirmeyer, Paul A.
dc.contributor.authorDoblas-Reyes, Francisco J.
dc.contributor.authorDomeisen, Daniela I.V.
dc.contributor.authorFerranti, Laura
dc.contributor.authorIlynia, Tatiana
dc.contributor.authorKumar, Arun
dc.contributor.authorMuller, Wolfgang A.
dc.contributor.authorRixen, Michel
dc.contributor.authorRobertson, Andrew W.
dc.contributor.authorSmith, Doug M.
dc.contributor.authorTakaya, Yuhei
dc.contributor.authorTuma, Matthias
dc.contributor.authorVitart, Frederic
dc.contributor.authorWhite, Christopher J.
dc.contributor.authorAlvarez, Mariano S.
dc.contributor.authorArdilouze, Constantin
dc.contributor.authorAttard, Hannah
dc.contributor.authorBaggett, Cory
dc.contributor.authorBalmaseda, Magdalena A.
dc.contributor.authorBeraki, Asmerom Fissehatsion
dc.contributor.authorBhattacharjee, Partha S.
dc.contributor.authorBilbao, Roberto
dc.contributor.authorDe Andrade, Felipe M.
dc.contributor.authorDeFlorio, Michael J.
dc.contributor.authorDíaz, Leandro B.
dc.contributor.authorEhsan, Muhammad Azhar
dc.contributor.authorFragkoulidis, Georgios
dc.contributor.authorGrainger, Sam
dc.contributor.authorGreen, Benjamin W.
dc.contributor.authorHell, Momme C.
dc.contributor.authorInfanti, Johnna M.
dc.contributor.authorIsensee, Katharina
dc.contributor.authorKataoka, Takahito
dc.contributor.authorKirtman, Ben P.
dc.contributor.authorKlingaman, Nicholas P.
dc.contributor.authorLee, June-Yi
dc.contributor.authorMayer, Kirsten
dc.contributor.authorMcKay, Roseanna
dc.contributor.authorMecking, Jennifer V.
dc.contributor.authorMiller, Douglas E.
dc.contributor.authorNeddermann, Nele
dc.contributor.authorNg, Ching Ho Justin
dc.contributor.authorOsso Albert
dc.contributor.authorPankatz, Klaus
dc.contributor.authorPeatman, Simon
dc.contributor.authorPegion, Kathy
dc.contributor.authorPerlwitz, Judith
dc.contributor.authorRecalde-Coronel, G. Cristina
dc.contributor.authorReintges, Annika
dc.contributor.authorRenkl, Christoph
dc.contributor.authorSolaraju-Murali, Balakrishnan
dc.contributor.authorSpring, Aaron
dc.contributor.authorStan, Cristiana
dc.contributor.authorSun, Y. Qiang
dc.contributor.authorTozer, Carly R.
dc.contributor.authorVigaud, Nicolas
dc.contributor.authorWoolnough., Steven
dc.contributor.authorYeager, Stephen
dc.date.accessioned2021-05-25T13:53:32Z
dc.date.available2021-05-25T13:53:32Z
dc.date.issued2020-06
dc.description.abstractWeather and climate variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales can have enormous social, economic, and environmental impacts, making skillful predictions on these time scales a valuable tool for decision-makers. As such, there is a growing interest in the scientific, operational, and applications communities in developing forecasts to improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales, these include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods, droughts, and heat and cold waves. On seasonal to decadal (S2D) time scales, while the focus broadly remains similar (e.g., on precipitation, surface and upper-ocean temperatures, and their effects on the probabilities of high-impact meteorological events), understanding the roles of internal variability and externally forced variability such as anthropogenic warming in forecasts also becomes important. The S2S and S2D communities share common scientific and technical challenges. These include forecast initialization and ensemble generation; initialization shock and drift; understanding the onset of model systematic errors; bias correction, calibration, and forecast quality assessment; model resolution; atmosphere–ocean coupling; sources and expectations for predictability; and linking research, operational forecasting, and end-user needs. In September 2018 a coordinated pair of international conferences, framed by the above challenges, was organized jointly by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). These conferences surveyed the state of S2S and S2D prediction, ongoing research, and future needs, providing an ideal basis for synthesizing current and emerging developments in these areas that promise to enhance future operational services. This article provides such a synthesis.en_ZA
dc.description.departmentGeography, Geoinformatics and Meteorologyen_ZA
dc.description.librarianpm2021en_ZA
dc.description.sponsorshipU.S. CLIVAR, NSF, UCAR, NCAR and its Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory (CGD), NOAA’s Climate Variability and Predictability (CVP) and Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) Programs, Copernicus Climate Change Service, IPSL, and WWRP/WCRP’s Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project.en_ZA
dc.description.urihttp://www2.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationMerryfield, W. J., Baehr, J., Batté, L. et al. (2020). Current and Emerging Developments in Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 101, 6, E869-E896, available from: < https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0037.1>en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn1520-0477 (online)
dc.identifier.other10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0037.1
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2263/80103
dc.language.isoenen_ZA
dc.publisherAmerican Meteorological Societyen_ZA
dc.rights© 2020 American Meteorological Societyen_ZA
dc.subjectWeatheren_ZA
dc.subjectClimate changeen_ZA
dc.subjectForecastsen_ZA
dc.subjectPredictionsen_ZA
dc.subjectTime scalesen_ZA
dc.titleCurrent and emerging developments in subseasonal to decadal predictionen_ZA
dc.typeArticleen_ZA

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