Does the PEG ratio add value?

Abstract

Warren Buffet started an investment partnership of $100 in 1956 and has gone on to accumulate a personal net worth of over $60 billion. He started primarily as a value investor, and gradually changed over time to a strategy which uses the PEG ratio as its main tool. Peter Lynch, one of the most successful fund managers in history and had a compound annual growth rate of 29% for 13 years, was the man to first introduce the world to the PEG ratio. With such prominence, however, widespread use of previously successful strategies tend to render them ineffective due to everyone using them, and today the PEG ratio’s effectiveness as a valuation tool remains a topical debate between market commentators.This study sets out to determine if the PEG ratio adds value using JSE Main Board data from 2002 to 2012. Returns from five portfolios constructed directly from share quintiles based on PEG ratio magnitude are compared to returns of a portfolio constructed from the optimum quintile of value shares. The PEG ratio portfolio returns are examined based on 3 rebalancing period strategies, and on relative performance between the quintiles within each strategy.It is found that a 24 monthly rebalancing strategy provides superior returns to that of 3 or 12 monthly rebalancing for PEG quintiles of selected stocks. Furthermore, the lowest PEG ratio quintile in this strategy outperforms the value portfolio by a compound annual growth rate of 4.3%. The second lowest PEG ratio quintile portfolio performs slightly better to ensure that 40% of stocks selected based on the PEG ratio produced sustained superior returns to the optimum quintile value portfolio.