The impact of return on equity and dividend payout ratios on stock returns in emerging financial markets in South Africa and Nigeria

Abstract

The field of stock returns and assessing stock returns utilising financial ratios has attracted substantial interest from various stakeholders. In terms of previous research, the role of financial ratios on stock returns has been based on studies in developed markets, with limited research in emerging markets. This research study provides an understanding of two specific financial ratios, namely the Return on Equity (ROE) and Dividend Payout (DPO) ratios and their impact on annual stock returns (ASR) in emerging stock markets in South Africa and Nigeria. A longitudinal analysis was performed from 2000 to 2013 for companies listed on the JSE Top 40 Index and from 2006 to 2013 for companies listed on the NSE 50 Index. The tests between the mean ROE and the mean ASR for companies listed on the JSE Top 40 Index revealed a significant positive correlation. The conclusions drawn from the relationship between the mean ROE and the mean ASR for companies listed on the NSE 50 Index and both the relationships between the mean DPO and the Mean ASR for both companies listed on the JSE top 40 Index and the NSE 50 Index was inconclusive.