Do sunspot numbers cause global temperatures? Evidence from a frequency domain causality test

dc.contributor.authorGupta, Rangan
dc.contributor.authorGil-Alana, Luis A.
dc.contributor.authorYaya, OlaOluwa S.
dc.contributor.emailrangan.gupta@up.ac.zaen_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2015-01-19T09:29:23Z
dc.date.available2015-01-19T09:29:23Z
dc.date.issued2015
dc.description.abstractThis article applies the causality test in the frequency domain, developed by Breitung and Candelon (2006), to analyse whether sunspot numbers (used as a partial approximation to solar irradiance) cause global temperatures, using monthly data covering the time period 1880:1–2013:9. While standard time domain Granger causality test fails to reject the null hypothesis that sunspot numbers do not cause global temperatures for both full and sub-samples (identified based on tests of structural breaks), the frequency domain causality test detects predictability for both the full-sample and the last sub-sample at short (2–2.6 months) and long (10.3 months and above) cycle lengths, respectively. Our results highlight the importance of analysing causality using the frequency domain test, which, unlike the time domain Granger causality test, allows us to decompose causality by different time horizons, and hence, could detect predictability at certain cycle lengths even when the time domain causality test might fail to pick up any causality. Further, given the widespread discussion in the literature, those results for the full-sample causality, irrespective of whether it is in time or frequency domains, cannot be relied upon when there are structural breaks present, and one needs to draw inference regarding causality from the sub-samples, we can conclude that there has been an emergence of causality running from sunspot numbers to global temperatures only recently at cycle length of 10.3 months and above.en_ZA
dc.description.embargo2016-05-30en_ZA
dc.description.librarianhb2015en_ZA
dc.description.urihttp://www.tandfonline.com/loi/raec20en_ZA
dc.identifier.citationRangan Gupta, Luis A. Gil-Alana & Olaoluwa S. Yaya (2015) Do sunspot numbers cause global temperatures? Evidence from a frequency domain causality test, Applied Economics, 47:8, 798-808, DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2014.980575en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn0003-6846 (print)
dc.identifier.issn1466-4283 (online)
dc.identifier.other10.1080/00036846.2014.980575
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2263/43119
dc.language.isoenen_ZA
dc.publisherRoutledgeen_ZA
dc.rights© 2014 Taylor & Francis. This is an electronic version of an article published in Applied Economics, vol. 47, no.8, pp. 798-808, 2015. doi : 10.1080/00036846.2014.980575. Applied Economics is available online at : http://www.tandfonline.comloi/raec20en_ZA
dc.subjectCausalityen_ZA
dc.subjectFrequency domainen_ZA
dc.subjectGlobal temperatures predictabilityen_ZA
dc.subjectSunspot numbersen_ZA
dc.titleDo sunspot numbers cause global temperatures? Evidence from a frequency domain causality testen_ZA
dc.typePostprint Articleen_ZA

Files

Original bundle

Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Name:
Gupta_Does_2015.pdf
Size:
344.57 KB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Postprint Article

License bundle

Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.71 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description: