Energy and emissions modelling in ethiopia’s transport sector

Abstract

This paper discusses emissions and energy modelling in Ethiopia’s transport sector as a component of the development of a wider cross-sectoral Long-term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LT-LEDS) for the country. The LT-LEDS is a key requirement of the Paris Agreement 2015 to which Ethiopia is a signatory. It aims to support growth of key economic sectors while ensuring the alignment of developmental goals with climate commitments and environmental sustainability. The transport sector is identified as a key part of this effort given its significant contribution to GHG emissions and climate change globally. The main activities involved in developing the low emissions pathways are the modelling of baseline and mitigation scenarios which capture historic emission and energy trends in the transport sector and estimates future emissions linked with the growth of the sector respectively. A bottom-up modelling technique is employed for the study. This involves collecting and analysing disaggregate transport activity data to provide a fundamental understanding of transport sector energy consumption and how it affects the long-term transitions. The results of the scenario building highlight the road sector as the main contributor to transport sector emissions in the country. This calls for the implementation of strategies and interventions to reduce emissions and guarantee a climate friendly and environmentally sustainable growth.