Evaluating the impacts of energy and environmental policy on South African households

Abstract

English: This thesis investigates how different policies and measures designed to reduce CO2 emissions – i.e. carbon tax and energy efficiency policies – in South Africa will affect South African households. The contribution of this study lies with evaluating South African households at a disaggregated income level from low to high-income appreciating the fact that households at different levels are impacted differently by the implementation of policies at national level. In order to evaluate such impacts, the study started with profiling the households’ electricity consumption patterns in South Africa through the years and comparing them with the rest of the world. The next objective was to comprehend – implementing an Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) econometric model – the determinants of electricity consumption of the residential sector in the country. Finally, by using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE), the study examined various policy scenarios designed to reduce emissions and its effects on different households, particularly the low-income ones that do not have the capital to absorb the impacts. The results showed that low-income households are affected differently than the rest of South African households by the national policies implemented to reduce CO2 emissions and combat climate change. However, given the way the carbon tax and energy efficiency policies are designed, low-income households should be affected minimally.

isiZulu: Le thesisi iphenya ukuthi izinhlobo ezahlukene zezinqubomgomo kanye nezinyathelo eziklanyelwe ukwehlisa ukukhishwa kwe-CO2 – okusho ukuthi Intela yekhabhoni kanye nezinqubomgomo ezinempumelelo emandleni kagesi – eNingizimu Afrika kuzothelela amakhaya aseNingizimu Afrika. Ukunikela kwalolu cwaningo kweyeme ekuhlolweni kwamakhaya aseNingizimu Afrika ezingeni lemali engenayo ehlukanisiwe ukusuka emalini engenayo ephansi ukuya kwephezulu ethakasela iphuzu lokuthi amakhaya emazingeni ahlukile atheleleka ngokwehlukile ngokusetshenziswa kwezinqubomgomo ezingeni likazwelonke. Ukuze kuhlolwe ukutheleleka okunye, ucwaningo luqalise ngokuphrofayila amaphethini okusetshenziswa kukagesi ngamakhaya aseNingizimu Afrika eminyakeni edlule bese kuqhathaniswa nokomhlaba wonke. Injongo elandelayo kwakuwukuqondisisa – ukusebenzisa isifanekiso sezomnotho i-Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (i-ARDL) – esasithola ukusetshenziswa kukagesi esigabeni sokuhlala ezweni. Ekugcineni, ngokusebenzisa Ukulingana Jikelele Okukwazi Ukwenziwa Ngekhomyutha (i-Computable General Equilibrium) (i-CGE), ucwaningo luhlola izehlakalo ezihlukile zezinqubomgomo ezifanekiselwe ukwehlisa izinga lokukhishwa kwekhabhoni kanye nemiphumela kumakhaya ahlukene, ikakhulukazi lawo emali engenayo ephansi angenayo imali eqongelelweyo ukumelelana nemithelela. Imiphumela ibonise ukuthi amakhaya anemali engenayo ephansi atheleleka ngokwehlukile kunawo wonke amakhaya aseNingizimu Afrika maqondana nezinqubomgomo zikazwelonke ezisetshenziswa ukwehlisa ukukhishwa kwe-CO2 kanye nokulwisana nokuguquka kwesimo sezulu. Kodwa uma kwethulwa indlela intela yekhabhoni kanye nezinqubomgomo zempumelelo yamandla kagesi ezifanekiswe ngayo, amakhaya athola imali engenayo ephansi kumele atheleleke kancane.

Afrikaans: Hierdie proefskrif ondersoek hoe verskillende beleide en maatreëls wat ontwerp is om CO2-emissies te verminder – m.a.w. koolstofbelasting en energiedoeltreffendsbeleide – in Suid-Afrika, Suid-Afrikaanse huishoudings sal raak. Die bydrae van hierdie studie lê in die evaluering van Suid-Afrikaanse huishoudings op 'n gedisaggregeerde inkomstevlak van lae- tot hoë-inkomste deur die feit dat huishoudings op verskillende vlakke verskillend geraak word deur die implementering van beleide op nasionale vlak. Om sulke impakte te evalueer, het die studie begin met die profilering van die huishoudings se elektrisiteitsverbruikpatrone in Suid-Afrika deur die jare en dit met die res van die wêreld te vergelyk. Die volgende doelwit was om die determinante van elektrisiteitsverbruik van die residensiële sektor in die land te verstaan ​​deur die implementering van 'n outoregressiewe verspreide naloop (ARDL) ekonometriese model. Ten slotte, deur 'n berekenbare algemene ewewig (CGE) te gebruik, het die studie verskeie beleidscenario's ondersoek wat ontwerp is om emissies en die uitwerking daarvan op verskillende huishoudings te verminder, veral die lae-inkomste huishoudings wat nie die kapitaal het om die impak te absorbeer nie. Die resultate het getoon dat lae-inkomste huishoudings anders as die res van Suid-Afrikaanse huishoudings geraak word deur die nasionale beleid wat geïmplementeer is om CO2-vrystellings te verminder en klimaatsverandering te bekamp. Gegewe die manier waarop die koolstofbelasting- en energiedoeltreffendheidsbeleide ontwerp is, behoort lae-inkomste huishoudings egter minimaal geraak te word.

Sepedi: Thesese ye e nyakišiša ka fao melawana le magato a go fapana a hlamilwego go fokotša go tšweletšwa ga CO2 – i.e. Melawana ya motšhelo wa khabone le go šomiša maatla gabotse – ka Afrika Borwa e tla ama malapa ka Afrika Borwa. Seabe sa nyakišišo ye se malebana le go sekaseka malapa ka Afrika Borwa bakeng sa letseno leo le arotšwego go tloga go letseno la fase go ya go la godimo go lemogwa taba ya gore malapa a maemong a go fapana a angwa ka mekgwa e fapanego ke phethagatšo ya melawana maemong a bosetšhaba. Gore go kgonege go sekaseka ditlamorago tše bjalo, nyakišišo e thomile ka go dira profaele ya mekgwa ya tšhomišo ya mohlagase ya malapa ka Afrika Borwa go ya le mengwaga le go e bapetša tirišo ya mohlagase le ya naga ka moka. Maikemišetšo a latelago ya ba go kwešiša – go phethagatša mohlala wa ikonometriki wa Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) – dilo tšeo di laolago tšhomišo ya mohlagase ya lekala la magaeng ka nageng. Sa mafelelo, ka go šomiša Tekatekano ya Kakaretšo ye e Balwago (CGE), nyakišišo e lekotše maemo a pholisi a go fapafapana ao a hlamilwego go fokotša go tšweletšwa ga dikhemikhale le ditlamorago tša yona go malapa a go fapana, kudukudu ao a hwetšago letseno la fase ao a se nago ditšhelete tša go fokotša ditlamorago. Dipoelo di bontšhitše gore malapa a letseno la fase a amega ka tsela ye e fapanego le malapa ka moka a Afrika Borwa ke melawana ya bosetšhaba yeo e phethagaditšwego go fokotša go tšweletšwa ga CO2 le go lwantšha phetogo ya boso. Le ge go le bjalo, ge go lebelelwa mokgwa woo motšhelo wa khabone le melawana ya go tšhomišo ya maatla gabotse e hlamilwego ka yona, malapa ao a hwetšago letseno la fase a swanetše go amega gannyane.