Understanding environmental factors influencing invasion of Lilium formosanum in Mpumalanga Province and models of its potential distribution in South Africa

Abstract

Alien invasive plants are of concern in the world because of their potential to spread into the natural environment. Invasion patterns observed in plant species can be attributed among other things to favourable environmental conditions. Understanding invasion dynamics of alien invasive plants can help in timely intervention initiatives. In Mpumalanga, Lilium formosanum (Liliaceae) appears to be an emerging plant invader and is spreading in the natural environment. The study investigated the invasion extent and predictor variables which could explain abundance patterns of L. formosanum in the invasive range in Mpumalanga province in South Africa and further predict regions of the world that could be climatically suitable. Lilium formosanum was surveyed along 11 major routes leading into the towns of Sabie and Graskop in Mpumalanga from a slow moving vehicle. A total of 241 kilometres was surveyed. Lilium formosanum was found to be invasive from the towns of Sabie and Graskop. Climatically suitable areas were predicted using DIVA-GIS and climate data was obtained from WORLDCLIM database while occurrence records were obtained from the Southern African Plant Invaders Atlas, Australia’s virtual herbarium and the Global Biodiversity Information Facility. In conclusion, distance, altitude and route were found to have an influence on the abundance of L. formosanum in Mpumalanga Province. Climatically suitable areas included the eastern coastal belt, northern provinces and the interior parts of South Africa including major parts of Limpopo and Mpumalanga.