Infectious disease-related uncertainty and the safe-haven characteristic of US treasury securities

Abstract

This paper analyses the impact of a newspaper-based uncertainty associated with infectious diseases (EMVID) on the level, slope and curvature factors derived from the term structure of interest rates of the US covering maturities from 1 year to 30 years. Results from nonlinearity and structural break tests indicate the misspecification of the linear causality model and point to the suitability of applying a time-varying model. A DCC-MGARCH framework is thus applied and the results indicate significant predictability of the three latent factors from the EMVID index at each point of the entire sample, and also provide evidence of instantaneous spillover. Finally, the results of measuring safe-haven characteristic of the US Treasury market show that US treasuries with long-term maturities as captured by the level factor are consistently negatively correlated with the EMVID index, i.e., they act as a safe-haven, with the slope factor (medium-term maturities) following this trend since 2007, and the slope factor (short-term maturities) also showing signs of a safe-haven since May of 2020. Overall, the findings provide reasonable evidence that US Treasury securities can hedge the risks associated with the financial market in the wake of the current COVID-19 pandemic.