Foreign inflows of remittances into sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

Please read the abstract in the 00front of this document.English: This study starts with an investigation into the factors that drive or constrain formal remittance inflows to Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The aim is to facilitate a better understanding of what is required to direct remittances through formal channels, mitigate the use of informal remittance channels and its attendant negative externalities, as well as harness remittance inflows as an alternative source of finance for development. It has been estimated that approximately 45-65 percent of formal inflows to Sub-Saharan Africa come through informal channels (Freud and Spatafora, 2005) with strong negative externalities such as fraud, money laundering, illegal forex markets and terrorism financing. Informal inflows also adversely affect effective management of macroeconomic variables such as money supply growth, inflation and the exchange rate. Consequently, the use of informal channels for remittance inflows is a key challenge to financial sector policy globally. This study posits that having adequate insight into what drives or constrain remittance inflows through formal channels is a prerequisite to directing remittances through formal channels and thereon for more productive uses. Secondly, the economic impact of remittance inflows has been found to vary from region to region. It is capable of having either a positive or a negative impact on the recipient economy. Whiles remittances have smoothed consumption, income and reduced poverty in some countries (Ratha, 2003) it has also widened the poverty gap in other countries (Carrasco and Ro, 2007). Remittances have contributed to employment creation by providing capital for microenterprises in some countries (Woodruff and Zenteno, 2000) and at the same time reduced labour supply in other countries aggravating unemployment (Funkhouser, 1992; Amuedo-Dorantes and Pozo, 2004). Remittances have increased economic growth by providing finance for investment in some countries (Guiliano and Ruiz-Arranz, 2005) and in others reduced economic growth due to a fall in labour supply by recipient households (Chami et al. 2003). This dual economic impact of remittance inflows makes it imperative that its exact impact on macroeconomic variables in recipient economies be ascertained. One key indicator through which remittances influence the macro-economy is the exchange rate. This is because the exchange rate is the one important price that affects the prices of all other goods and services (Singer, 2008). Maintaining a stable exchange rate that ensures export competitiveness and a sustainable current account deficit is core to the monetary policy outlook in most Sub-Saharan African countries. However high levels of foreign inflows, such as remittances, are known to appreciate the underlying real exchange rate of the recipient economy, adversely affect export competitiveness, contracts the tradable sector and consequently worsens the trade deficit. This has been referred to as the Dutch-disease effect of remittance inflows (Corden and Neary, 1982). Consequently, the current levels of remittance inflows to developing countries, in excess of foreign direct investment and official development assistance, and its possible appreciating effect on the real exchange rate needs to be critically examined. This study therefore also examines the relationship and direction of causality between remittances and the real exchange rate in recipient Sub-Saharan African countries.

isiZulu: Lolu cwaningo luqala ngophenyo ngaphakathi kwezimpawu eziqhuba noma ezivimbela okwamukelwayo okungena e-Afrika eseNingizimu ye-Sahara ngokusemthethweni(i-SSA). Inhloso yokwenza lula ukuqonda okungcono kwaloko okudingekayo ukuqondisa okwamukelwayo ngokusebenzisa izindlela ezisemthethweni/ezihleliwe, ukunciphisa ukusetshenziswa kwezindlela zokwamukelwayo ezingekho semthethweni nezinto zangaphandle ezimbi zomlindi, kanye nokuphathwa kokwamukelwayo okungenayo njengomunye umthombo wezomnotho ozosetshenziselwa ukuthuthukisa. Kuye kwalinganiswa ukuthi cishe kulingane namaphesenti angama-45 ukuya kwangama-65 okungena ngokusemthethweni nokungena ngokungekho semthethweni e-Afrika eseNingizimu ye-Sahara (ngu-Freud no-Spatafora, ngowe-2005) kwakuqukethe okuningi okubi okunzima okufana nokukhwabanisa, ukukhwabanisa ngemali, izimakethe ze-forex ezingekho semthethweni kanye nokuxhaswa ngezimali ngamaphekula. Okungenayo okungekho semthethweni kunomthelela omubi ekuphathweni ngempumelelo kokuguquguquka kwezomnotho okunezinqumo ezifana nokukhula kokunikezwa kwezimali, ukwehla kwamandla emali kanye nezinga lokushintshana kwemali. Ngenxa yaloko, ukusetshenziswa kwezindleko ezingekho semthethweni kokwamukelwayo okungenayo yinselele esemqoka maqondana nenqubomgomo yesigaba yezezimali emhlabeni wonke. Lolu cwaningo lubeka ukuthi ukuba nolwazi olwanele maqondana nokuqhuba noma ukuvimbela okungenayo okukhokhelwayo ngokusebenzisa izindlela ezisemthethweni okudingeka kuqala ukuqondisa izinkokhelo ezingenayo ngokusebenzisa izindlela ezisemthethweni kanye nangaphezu kwaloko okusetshenziselwa ukukhiqiza okwengeziwe. Okwesibili, umthelela wezomnotho wokungenayo okwamukelwayo kuye kwatholakala kwehlukile ukusuka esifundazweni esinye ukuya kwesinye. Inekhono lokwazi ukuba nomthelela omubi noma omuhle emothweni owamukelwayo. Ngenkathi okwamukelayo kuye kwenza kucoliseke okusetshenziswayo, imali engenayo kanye nobuphofu obehlisiwe kwamanye amazwe (ngu-Ratha, ngowe-2003) kuye futhi kwanda igebe lobuphofu kwamanye amazwe (ngu-Carrasco no-Ro, ngowe-2007). Okwamukelwayo kuye kwanikeza ukwakhiwa kwamathuba emisebenzini ngokuhlinzeka imali eqongelwayo yamabhizinisi amancane kwamanye amazwe (ngu-Woodruff no- Zenteno, ngowe-2000) futhi ngesikhathi esifanayo kwehliswa ukunikezwa kwabasebenzi kwamanye amazwe okwenza kwaba kubi kakhulu ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi (ngu-Funkhouser, ngowe-1992; no-Amuedo-Dorantes beno-Pozo, ngowe-2004). Okwamukelwayo kuye kwakhuphula ukukhula kwezomnotho ngokuhlinzeka ezezimali ezisetshenziswa ukutshala imali kwamanye amazwe (ngu-Guiliano no-Ruiz-Arranz, ngowe-2005) kwathi kwamanye kwehlisa ukukhula kwezomnotho ngenxa yokwehla ekunikezeni komsebenzi ngamakhaya amukelayo (ngu-Chami nabanye ngowe-2003). Lo mthelela wezomnotho wokungenayo okwamukelwayo okuphindwe kabili wenza ukuthi kuphoqelelwe ukuthi umthelela wayo wangempela phezu kokugugquguqukayo kwezomnotho okukhulu kowamukelayo kwezomnotho okumele kuqinisekiswe. Isiboniso esisodwa esisemqoka okusetshenziswa sona ukuthelela ezomnotho ezinkulu yizinga lokushintshisana. Loku kungoba ukushintshaniswa kwemali yintengo eyodwa esemqoka ngenxa yokuthi ithelela izintengo zayo yonke enye impahla kanye nezinsizakalo (ngu-Singer, ngowe-2008). Ukugcina ukushintshaniswa kwemali okungaguquguquki okuqinisekisa ukuncintisana kokuthekelisa kanye nokuntuleka kwe-akhawunti yamanje esimeme ingumnyombo wombono wenqubomgomo yezimali emazweni amaningi ase-Afrika eseNingizimu ye-Sahara.

Afrikaans: Hierdie studie begin met 'n ondersoek na die faktore wat formele oorbetalingsinvloei na Afrika suid van die Sahara (SSA) dryf of beperk. Die doel is om 'n beter begrip te fasiliteer van wat nodig is om oorbetalings deur formele kanale te rig, die gebruik van informele oorbetalingskanale en die gepaardgaande negatiewe eksternaliteite te versag, asook om oorbetalingsinvloeie te benut as 'n alternatiewe bron van finansiering vir ontwikkeling. Daar is beraam dat ongeveer 45–65 persent van formele invloei na Afrika suid van die Sahara deur informele kanale kom (Freud en Spatafora, 2005) met sterk negatiewe eksternaliteite soos bedrog, geldwassery, onwettige forexmarkte en terrorismefinansiering. Informele invloei beïnvloed ook die effektiewe bestuur van makro-ekonomiese veranderlikes, soos geldvoorraadgroei, inflasie en die wisselkoers, nadelig. Gevolglik is die gebruik van informele kanale vir oorbetalingsinvloei 'n sleuteluitdaging vir die finansiële sektorbeleid wêreldwyd. Hierdie studie stel voor dat om voldoende insig te hê in wat oorbetalingsinvloeie deur formele kanale dryf of beperk, 'n voorvereiste is om oorbetalings deur formele kanale te rig en daarna vir meer produktiewe gebruike. Tweedens is gevind dat die ekonomiese impak van oorbetalingsinvloei van streek tot streek verskil. Dit is in staat om óf 'n positiewe óf 'n negatiewe impak op die ontvangerekonomie te hê. Terwyl oorbetalings verbruik, inkomste en armoede in sommige lande verminder het (Ratha, 2003), het dit ook die armoedegaping in ander lande vergroot (Carrasco en Ro, 2007). Oorbetalings het bygedra tot werkskepping deur kapitaal vir mikro-ondernemings in sommige lande te verskaf (Woodruff en Zenteno, 2000) en terselfdertyd het die arbeidsaanbod in ander lande verminder, wat werkloosheid vererger het (Funkhouser, 1992; Amuedo-Dorantes en Pozo, 2004). Oorbetalings het ekonomiese groei verhoog deur finansiering te verskaf vir belegging in sommige lande (Guiliano en Ruiz-Arranz, 2005) en in ander het ekonomiese groei verminder as gevolg van 'n afname in die arbeidsaanbod deur ontvangerhuishoudings (Chami et al. 2003). Hierdie dubbele ekonomiese impak van oorbetalingsinvloeie maak dit noodsaaklik dat die presiese impak daarvan op makro-ekonomiese veranderlikes in ontvanger ekonomieë vasgestel word. Een sleutelaanwyser waardeur oorbetalings die makro-ekonomie beïnvloed, is die wisselkoers. Dit is omdat die wisselkoers die een belangrike prys is wat die pryse van alle ander goedere en dienste beïnvloed (Singer, 2008). Die handhawing van 'n stabiele wisselkoers wat uitvoermededingendheid en 'n volhoubare tekort op die lopende rekening verseker, is die kern van die monetêre beleidsvooruitsigte in die meeste Afrikalande suid van die Sahara. Dit is egter bekend dat hoë vlakke van buitelandse invloei, soos oorbetalings, die onderliggende reële wisselkoers van die ontvangerekonomie waardeer, uitvoermededingendheid nadelig beïnvloed, die verhandelbare sektor kontrakteer en gevolglik die handelstekort vererger. Daar is hierna verwys as die Nederlandse siekte-effek van oorbetalingsinvloeie (Corden en Neary, 1982). Gevolglik moet die huidige vlakke van oorbetalingsinvloei na ontwikkelende lande, meer as regstreekse buitelandse belegging en amptelike ontwikkelingshulp, en die moontlike waarderende effek daarvan op die werklike wisselkoers, krities ondersoek word. Hierdie studie ondersoek dus ook die verband en rigting van kousaliteit tussen oorbetalings en die werklike wisselkoers in ontvanger Afrikalande suid van die Sahara.

Sepedi: Thuto ye e thoma ka nyakišišo ya mabaka ao a hlohleletšago goba a thibelago go tsena ga tšhelete semmušo go ya Afrika ya ka Borwa bja Sahara (SSA). Maikemišetšo ke go nolofatša kwešišo ye kaone ya seo se nyakegago go lebiša ditšhelete tša go romelwa ka dikanale tša semmušo, go fokotša tšhomišo ya dikanale tša go romela tšhelete tšeo e sego tša semmušo le dilo tše mpe tša ka ntle tšeo di sepedišanago le tšona, gammogo le go šomiša ditšhelete tše di tsenago bjalo ka mothopo wo mongwe wa ditšhelete bakeng sa tlhabollo. Go akantšwe gore mo e ka bago 45-65 lekgolong ya ditšhelete tše di tsenago semmušo ka Afrika ya ka Borwa bja Sahara di tla ka dikanale tšeo e sego tša semmušo (Freud le Spatafora, 2005) ka dilo tše mpe tše maatla tša ka ntle tša go swana le bomenetša, go hlwekiša tšhelete, mebaraka ya forex yeo e sego molaong le thušo ya ditšhelete ya botšhošetši. Diphenyo tše di sego tša semmušo di ama gape gampe taolo ye e šomago gabotse ya diphetogo tša ekonomikgolo go swana le kgolo ya kabo ya tšhelete, infleišene le seelo sa phapantšho. Ka lebaka leo, tšhomišo ya dikanale tšeo e sego tša semmušo bakeng sa go tsena ga ditšhelete tša go romela tšhelete ke tlhohlo ye kgolo go pholisi ya lekala la ditšhelete lefaseng ka bophara. Thuto ye e bea gore go ba le temogo ye e lekanego ya gore ke eng seo se hlohleletšago goba se thibelago go tsena ga ditšhelete ka dikanale tša semmušo ke senyakwa sa pele sa go lebiša ditšhelete tšeo di romelwago ka dikanale tša semmušo le go feta moo bakeng sa ditšhomišo tše di nago le tšweletšo kudu. Sa bobedi, khuetšo ya ekonomi ya ditšhelete tše di tsenago tša tšhelete e hweditšwe e fapana go ya ka dilete. E kgona go ba le khuetšo ye botse goba ye mpe go ekonomi ya moamogedi. Le ge e le gore go romelwa ga tšhelete go dira gore tšhomišo e be bonolo, letseno le go fokotša bohumanegi dinageng tše dingwe (Ratha, 2003) gape go katološitše sekgoba sa bohumanegi dinageng tše dingwe (Carrasco le Ro, 2007). Ditšhelete tše di rometšwego di bile le seabe go hlomeng mešomo ka go aba ditšhelete go dikgwebo potlana dinageng tše dingwe (Woodruff le Zenteno, 2000) gomme ka yona nako yeo di fokotša kabo ya bašomi dinageng tše dingwe tšeo di gakatšago tlhokego ya mešomo (Funkhouser, 1992; Amuedo-Dorantes le Pozo, 2004). Ditšhelete tša letseno di okeditše kgolo ya ekonomi ka go aba ditšhelete tša dipeeletšo dinageng tše dingwe (Guiliano le Ruiz-Arranz, 2005) gomme go tše dingwe di fokoditše kgolo ya ekonomi ka lebaka la go wa ga kabo ya bašomi ke malapa ao a amogelago (Chami et al. 2003). Kgahlamelo ye ya ekonomi ya mahlakorepedi ya ditšhelete tše di tsenago e gapeletša gore gore go be le khuetšo ye e nepagetšeg diphetogong tša ekonomikgolo ka diekonomi tša baamogedi e kgonthišišwe. Sešupo se tee se bohlokwa seo ka sona ditšhelete tšeo di romelwago di huetšago ekonomikgolo ke seelo sa phapantšho. Se ke ka lebaka la gore seelo sa phapantšho ke theko e tee ye bohlokwa yeo e amago ditheko tša dithoto le ditirelo tše dingwe ka moka (Singer, 2008). Go hlokomela seelo sa phapantšho se se tsepamego seo se netefatšago phadišano ya diromelwantle le tlhaelelo ya akhaonto ya bjale ya go ya go ile ke selo sa motheo go tebelelo ya pholisi ya ditšhelete ka bontšing bja dinaga tša ka Borwa bja Sahara. Le ge go le bjalo maemo a godimo a ditšhelete tše di tsenago tša dinaga tša ka ntle, go swana le ditšhelete tše di romelwago, a tsebja ka go godiša seelo sa nnete sa phapantšho sa ekonomi ya moamogedi, se ama gampe phadišano ya diromelwantle, a dira dikonteraka le lekala leo le gwebišwago gomme ka lebaka leo a mpefatša tlhaelelo ya kgwebišano. Se se šupša bjalo ka khuetšo ya malwetši a Dutch ya go tsena ga tšhelete ya go romelwa (Corden le Neary, 1982). Ka lebaka leo, maemo a bjale a go tsena ga ditšhelete tša go romelwa dinageng tše di hlabologago, go feta dipeeletšo tša thwii tša dinaga tša ka ntle le thušo ya tlhabollo ya semmušo, le khuetšo ya yona ye e kgonegago ya go godiša seelo sa nnete sa phapantšho di swanetše go hlahlobja ka tsinkelo. Ka fao nyakišišo ye e hlahloba gape kamano le tlhahlo ya lebaka magareng ga ditšhelete tšeo di romelwago le seelo sa nnete sa phapantšho dinageng tša Afrika tša ka Borwa bja Sahara tšeo di amogelago.