Analyzing accident risk through hazardous manoeuvres in various traffic clusters-a case study of national road N0.1(EN1) in Nampula city,Mozambique

Abstract

In the present day, road accidents within the urban network of Nampula are emerging as a significant concern. Quite literally, traffic accidents are reported by road users on a daily basis; however, only those with a certain degree of severity are officially documented by the police. In reality, the number of traffic accidents recorded by the police, though substantial, falls significantly short of the total accidents occurring each day. The absence of traffic monitoring devices in the urban network of Nampula poses a hindrance to the collection of accident data, which serves as the primary source for accident risk analysis. This manuscript takes a novel approach by employing hazardous driving/maneuvering events to estimate the associated accident risk in different traffic conditions, defined by the penetration levels of various transport modes. The analysis results reveal that when the traffic flow in Nampula City is dominated by motorcycles, the risk of accidents tends to increase. The research demonstrates that alternative methodologies can be employed to improve traffic safety in contexts characterized by a deficiency in accident data.