Open-source environmental scanning and risk assessment in the statutory counterespionage milieu

Abstract

The research focuses on the utilisation of open-source information in augmentation of the all-source counterespionage endeavour. The study has the principal objective of designing, contextualising and elucidating a micro-theoretical framework for open-source environmental scanning within the civilian, statutory counterespionage sphere. The research is underpinned by the central assumption that the environmental scanning and the contextual analysis of overt information will enable the identification, description and prioritisation of espionage risks that would not necessarily have emerged through the statutory counterespionage process in which secretly collected information predominates. The environmental scanning framework is further assumed to offer a theoretical foundation to surmount a degenerative counterespionage spiral driven by an over-reliance on classified information. Flowing from the central assumption, five further assumptions formulated and tested in the research are the following: (1) A methodically demarcated referent premise enables the focusing and structuring of the counterespionage environmental scanning process amid the exponential proliferation of overt information. (2) Effective environmental scanning of overt information for counterespionage necessitates a distinctive definition of ‘risk’ and ‘threat’, as these are interlinked yet different concepts. It is therefore asserted that current notions of ‘threat’ and ‘risk’ are inadequate for feasible employment within an overt counterespionage environmental scanning framework. (3) A framework for overt counterespionage environmental scanning has as its primary requirement the ability to identify diverse risks, descriptively and predicatively, on a strategic as well as a tactical level. (4) The degree of adversity in the relationship between a government and an adversary constitutes the principal indicator and determinant of an espionage risk. (5) The logical accommodation of a framework for overt counterespionage environmental scanning necessitates a distinctive counterintelligence cycle, as existing conceptualisations of the intelligence cycle are inadequate. The study’s objective and the testing of these five assumptions are pursued on both the theoretical and pragmatic-utilitarian levels. The framework for counterespionage, open-source environmental scanning and risk assessment is presented as part of a multilayered unison of alternative theoretical propositions on the all-source intelligence, counterintelligence and counterespionage processes. It is furthermore advanced from the premise of an alternative proposition on an integrated approach to open-source intelligence. On a pragmatic-utilitarian level, the framework’s design is informed and its application elucidated through an examination of the 21st century espionage reality confronting the nation state, contemporary statutory counterintelligence measures and the ‘real-life’ difficulties of open-source intelligence confronting practitioners. Although with certain qualifications, the assumptions are in the main validated by the research. The research furthermore affirms this as an exploratory thesis in a largely unexplored field.