Student success in fully online programmes : examining retention rates and the contextual issues

Abstract

The rapid developments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and the ubiquity of the technology give rise to new opportunities to expand access to higher education through online distance learning. However, traditional distance learning and online education programmes historically experienced high student dropout rates. The advent of fully online programmes following a carousel format necessitated the need to evaluate student retention in this specific context. This study investigated the student retention phenomenon in a fully online postgraduate programme. The study examined the trends and patterns of student retention and how contextual issues pertinent to adult students in a distance education setting influenced student retention outcomes. The study adopted a pragmatic research philosophy, using a sequential-explanatory mixed-method approach. The study sample included 1111 students, stratified into seven cohorts. Convenience and purposive sampling methods were used to gather explanatory data using a questionnaire as an instrument. Quantitative data analysis included time series trend analysis, factor analysis, and correlational analysis. The content analysis method was used to analyse qualitative data.

This study found that student retention in the fully online programme followed a two-phased logarithmic pattern, characterised by relatively high student dropout rate in the early phases and a gradual decline in the dropout rate in later phases. However, student retention rates in this fully online programme were high and comparable to the rates reported for similar programmes offered in full-time contact learning. The retention rates were higher than those reported in traditional distance learning programmes. Student dropout is influenced by contextual issues such as background variables, socioeconomic status, motivation, family support, work-related issues, time management, academic integration, and students’ evaluation of the value of the qualification. The contextual issues need to be considered in student retention improvement initiatives. The design of the academic programmes and the policies should also consider the nature and context of students involved in the programme. This study recommends further research in examining the factors pertinent to students, specifically in online distance education and how these factors influence retention outcomes.