Rainfall simulations of high-impact weather in South Africa with the conformal cubic atmospheric model (CCAM)

Abstract

Warnings of severe weather with a lead time longer that two hours require the use of skillful numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In this study, we test the performance of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) in simulating six high-impact weather events, with a focus on rainfall predictions in South Africa. The selected events are tropical cyclone Dineo (16 February 2017), the Cape storm (7 June 2017), the 2017 Kwa-Zulu Natal (KZN) floods (10 October 2017), the 2019 KZN floods (22 April 2019), the 2019 KZN tornadoes (12 November 2019) and the 2020 Johannesburg floods (5 October 2020). Three configurations of CCAM were compared: a 9 km grid length (MN9km) over southern Africa nudged within the Global Forecast System (GFS) simulations, and a 3 km grid length over South Africa (MN3km) nudged within the 9 km CCAM simulations. The last configuration is CCAM running with a grid length of 3 km over South Africa, which is nudged within the GFS (SN3km). The GFS is available with a grid length of 0.25 , and therefore, the configurations allow us to test if there is benefit in the intermediate nudging at 9 km as well as the effects of resolution on rainfall simulations. The South AfricanWeather Service (SAWS) station rainfall dataset is used for verification purposes. All three configurations of CCAM are generally able to capture the spatial pattern of rainfall associated with each of the events. However, the maximum rainfall associated with two of the heaviest rainfall events is underestimated by CCAM with more than 100 mm. CCAM simulations also have some shortcomings with capturing the location of heavy rainfall inland and along the northeast coast of the country. Similar shortcomings were found with other NWP models used in southern Africa for operational forecasting purposes by previous studies. CCAM generally simulates a larger rainfall area than observed, resulting in more stations reporting rainfall. Regarding the different configurations, they are more similar to one another than observations, however, with some suggestion that MN3km outperforms other configurations, in particular with capturing the most extreme events. The performance of CCAM in the convective scales is encouraging, and further studies will be conducted to identify areas of possible improvement.