Analyzing the effects of drought at different time scales on cause-specific mortality in South Africa

dc.contributor.authorSalvador, Coral
dc.contributor.authorNieto, Raquel
dc.contributor.authorKapwata, Thandi
dc.contributor.authorWright, Caradee Yael
dc.contributor.authorReason, Chris
dc.contributor.authorGimeno, Luis
dc.contributor.authorVicedo-Cabrera, Ana M
dc.date.accessioned2024-08-27T08:15:37Z
dc.date.available2024-08-27T08:15:37Z
dc.date.issued2024-05
dc.descriptionDATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT : Climatic series were obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts public datasets (ECMWF): https://doi.org/10.24381/CDS.E2161BAC. Mortality data was available after signing the data agreement with the Statistics South Africa. The data cannot be made publicly available upon publication because they contain sensitive personal information. The data that support the findings of this study are available upon reasonable request from the authors.en_US
dc.description.abstractSouth Africa (SA) is highly vulnerable to the effects of drought on the environment, economy, and society. However, its effect on human health remains unclear. Understanding the mortality risk associated with different types of droughts in different population groups and by specific causes would help clarify the potential mechanisms involved. The study aims to comprehensively assess the effect of droughts of varying time scales on cause-specific mortality (all; infectious and parasitic; endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic; cardiovascular; respiratory) in SA (from 2009–2016) and identify more vulnerable profiles based on sex and age. We also evaluated the urbanicity and district-level socioeconomic deprivation as potential risk modifiers. We used a two-stage time-series study design, with the weekly standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) calculated at 1, 6, 12, and 15 months of accumulation to identify droughts of different duration (SPEI1, 6, 12, 15, respectively). We applied a quasi-Poisson regression adjusted by mean temperature to assess the association between each type of drought and weekly mortality in all district municipalities of SA, and then pooled the estimates in a meta-regression model. We reported relative risks (RRs) for one unit increase of drought severity. Overall, we found a positive association between droughts (regardless the time scale) and all causes of death analyzed. The strongest associations were found for the drought events more prolonged (RR [95%CI]: 1.027 [1.018, 1.036] (SPEI1); 1.035 [1.021, 1.050] (SPEI6); 1.033 [1.008, 1.058] (SPEI12); 1.098 [1.068, 1.129] (SPEI15)) and respiratory mortality (RRs varied from 1.037 [1.021, 1.053] (SPEI1) to 1.189 [1.14, 1.241] (SPEI15)). An indication of greater vulnerability was found in younger adults for the shortest droughts, in older adults for medium-term and long-term droughts, and children for very long-term droughts. However, differences were not significant. Further evidence of the relevance of urbanicity and demographic and socioeconomic conditions as potential risk modifiers is needed.en_US
dc.description.departmentGeography, Geoinformatics and Meteorologyen_US
dc.description.librarianhj2024en_US
dc.description.sdgSDG-03:Good heatlh and well-beingen_US
dc.description.sdgSDG-13:Climate actionen_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThe Xunta de Galicia, Spain; the EPhysLab group was cofounded by Xunta de Galicia, Consellería de Cultura, Educación e Universidade and the European Union; the South African Medical Research Council; and the Swiss National Foundation.en_US
dc.description.urihttps://iopscience.iop.org/journal/1748-9326en_US
dc.identifier.citationSalvador, C., Nieto, R., Kapwata, T. et al. 2024, 'Analyzing the effects of drought at different time scales on cause-specific mortality in South Africa', Environmental Research Letters, vol. 19, no. 5, art. 054022, doi : 10.1088/1748-9326/ad3bd2.en_US
dc.identifier.issn1748-9326 (online)
dc.identifier.other10.1088/1748-9326/ad3bd2
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2263/97889
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherIOP Publishingen_US
dc.rights© 2024 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license.en_US
dc.subjectLetteren_US
dc.subjectDroughten_US
dc.subjectCause-specific mortalityen_US
dc.subjectVulnerability assessmenten_US
dc.subjectSouth Africa (SA)en_US
dc.subjectStandardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI)en_US
dc.subjectMortalityen_US
dc.subjectSDG-03: Good health and well-beingen_US
dc.subjectSDG-13: Climate actionen_US
dc.titleAnalyzing the effects of drought at different time scales on cause-specific mortality in South Africaen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US

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