Comparison of probability distributions used for harnessing the wind energy potential : a case study from India

Abstract

Modeling wind speed data is the prime requirement for harnessing the wind energy potential at a given site. While the Weibull distribution is the most commonly employed distribution in the literature and in practice, numerous scientific articles have proposed various alternative continuous probability distributions to model the wind speed at their convenient sites. Fitting the best distribution model to the data enables the practitioners to estimate the wind power density more accurately, which is required for wind power generation. In this paper we comprehensively review fourteen continuous probability distributions, and investigate their fitting capacities at seventeen locations of India covering the east and west offshore corner as well as the mainland, which represents a large variety of climatological scenarios. A first main finding is that wind speed varies a lot inside India and that one should treat each site individually for optimizing wind power generation. A second finding is that the wide acceptance of the Weibull distribution should at least be questioned, as it struggles to represent wind regimes with heterogeneous data sets exhibiting multimodality, high levels of skewness and/or kurtosis. Our study reveals that mixture distributions are very good alternative candidates that can model difficult shapes and yet do not require too many parameters.