Technology shocks and crude oil market connection : the role of climate change

dc.contributor.authorSalisu, Afees A.
dc.contributor.authorIsah, Kazeem
dc.contributor.authorOloko, Tirimisiyu O.
dc.contributor.emailafees.salisu@up.ac.zaen_US
dc.date.accessioned2024-03-14T05:24:58Z
dc.date.issued2024-02
dc.description.abstractWe study the connection between global technology shocks (TS) and the crude oil market from 1880 to 2018. Our study utilizes newly constructed global TS datasets that cover OECD countries and 164 countries, while also considering the role of climate change using temperature anomalies. We use the GARCH-MIDAS framework to account for mixed data frequencies and statistical properties of the variables. Our findings show that the link between TS and oil return volatility is episodic, with the relationship becoming apparent after the great depression of the 1930s. Technological innovations appear to moderate oil return volatility. We also estimate the effect of climate change-augmented TS on oil volatility and find that it reduces the potential of technology shocks to lessen oil return volatility. We also find that the out-of-sample forecast gains are realized from observing TS and climate change in the predictability of oil return volatility. Nonetheless, a more general definition of global TS (with 164 countries) offers higher forecast gains than a more restricted global TS (with OECD countries only). Finally, we document the implications of our findings for policy and practice.en_US
dc.description.departmentEconomicsen_US
dc.description.embargo2026-01-19
dc.description.librarianhj2024en_US
dc.description.sdgSDG-08:Decent work and economic growthen_US
dc.description.urihttps://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneecoen_US
dc.identifier.citationSalisu, A.A., Isah, K. & Oloko, T.O. 2024, 'Technology shocks and crude oil market connection: the role of climate change', Energy Economics, vol. 130, art. 107325, pp. 1-9, doi : 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107325.en_US
dc.identifier.issn0140-9883 (print)
dc.identifier.issn1873-6181 (online)
dc.identifier.other10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107325
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/2263/95199
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherElsevieren_US
dc.rights© 2024 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Notice : this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Energy Economics. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. A definitive version was subsequently published in Energy Economics, vol. 130, art. 107325, pp. 1-9, 2024, doi : 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107325.en_US
dc.subjectTechnology shocksen_US
dc.subjectCrude oil marketen_US
dc.subjectClimate changeen_US
dc.subjectPredictabilityen_US
dc.subjectGARCH-MIDASen_US
dc.subjectGeneralized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)en_US
dc.subjectMixed data sampling (MIDAS)en_US
dc.subjectSDG-08: Decent work and economic growthen_US
dc.titleTechnology shocks and crude oil market connection : the role of climate changeen_US
dc.typePostprint Articleen_US

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