The long-run investment performance of initial public offerings (IPOs) in South Africa

Abstract

This study investigated the long-run investment performance of 411 South African IPOs during the period 1992 to 2007. Consistent with historical studies, no evidence of abnormal performance was found on a calendar-time approach using the Fama- French (1993) three-factor model. While the long-run performance did not differ materially, factors such as financial and industrial industry classifications were found to impact after-market performance of IPO portfolios. It was found that large new company issuances within the Financials and Industrials categories produced abnormal returns, but on a collective basis there was no evidence of abnormal performance. In particular, a positive relationship was found to exist between book-tomarket ratios and IPO performance in the financial and industrial sectors, but there was scant evidence on a collective basis. Market conditions were found to have an impact on IPO performance. In periods of market buoyancy, IPOs performed well and in periods of market distress, IPOs‟ performance suffered. The implications of this study are that investors, in making decisions on whether or not to invest in new issues, should not expect to make superior returns to the market over a five-year period by investing in IPOs. IPO performance after the five-year period was not part of the scope for this study and may form the basis for future studies. Copyright