On mathematical modeling of the transmission of Grapevine leafroll-associated virus 3 by the vine mealybug, Planococcus ficus

Abstract

Grapevine leafroll disease (GLD) is the most common and economically destructive grapevine viral disease in South African vineyards and throughout the world. There are many GLD-associated virus variants with Grapevine leafroll-associated virus 3 (GLRaV-3) being the main causative agent of GLD. The vine mealybug, Planococcus ficus, is the most widespread and problematic vector of GLRaV-3. Roguing, pesticides and sanitary measures are common control strategies used in South African vineyards. In this paper, we propose an age-structured mathematical model for the transmission of (GLRaV-3) by Planococcus ficus in the South African context. The model is investigated in terms of the transmission thresholds and control strategies. A simplified model is used to shed light into the qualitative dynamics of transmission and assess the effectiveness of roguing as the main control strategy for GLRaV-3 spread.