Abstract:
Whilst the procurement of electricity within South Africa for large power users is
currently done through the incumbent utility, Eskom, the future of electricity
purchases within South Africa may be radically different. Structural changes to the
South African electricity supply industry is likely in the next few years spearheaded
by the unbundling of Eskom.
In order to survive in this new world, procurement offices for large power users need
to design strategies that are agile enough to adapt to these changes yet stable
enough to ensure security of supply. This need may be facilitated by having a view
of the possible futures and the factors responsible for driving it.
This paper identifies the drivers of change for a future electricity supply industry
through utilising scenario planning. The scenario planning framework is applied
qualitatively through two subject matter expert focus groups. The results indicate
there are seven drivers likely to influence the future electricity supply industry with
two drivers, a desire to deregulate the electricity supply industry and an increased
pressure to decarbonise the energy sector, having the biggest impact. Based on this,
four alternative future narratives are derived to describe the plausible future of the
electricity supply industry.
