Abstract:
Since post-apartheid South Africa, the government has focused mainly on alleviating
poverty and bridging the inequality gap. This has been done through the
implementation of pro-poor policies. While these pro-poor efforts favour primarily the
poor, a significant number of households are trapped as they are neither poor nor rich.
These are referred to as the aspirants in this study. The aspirants, in terms of
regulation, are considered economically self-sufficient and could as well be classified
in the middle class. However, they are struggling to pay their bills and take care of
their households. Their desired economic, social, and political life is still the aspiration
and admiration of those in the middle class. There is no specific government policy
targeted at the progression of the aspirants towards becoming a stable middle class.
Therefore, this study aims at developing a policy framework with recommendations
that will grow the aspirants to become a stable middle class.
This study utilised the convergent parallel mixed-methods case study design in the
City of Johannesburg Metropolitan Municipality, to profile these aspirants by identifying
their characteristics and analysing their determinants and the impact of such
determinants on their upward mobility. Finally, a policy framework that will assist to
grow and sustain the aspirants into a stable middle class was developed.
Findings from the study show that the aspirants tend to adopt lifestyles of the middle
class but without the prerequisite resources to sustain these livelihoods. The
descriptive analysis, non-parametric tests and chi-square tests indicated that they
have lower levels of education, asset holding, and participation in social networks,
which makes them vulnerable to consumption shocks. Consequently, through the
literature review, the study established key determinants of the aspirants’ upward
mobility. These were modelled using the binary logistic regression technique to
determine their impact. Findings from the logistic regression revealed a significant
relationship between social mobility and education, racial inequality, asset ownership,
access to economic opportunities, and proximity to amenities. The study findings were
necessary for providing a policy framework that focuses on improving the quality of
education through early childhood development and leveraging intergovernmental
relations; addressing asset accumulation through improving enforcement of property
rights; addressing racial inequality and improving access to opportunities through reducing the cost of doing business, the creation of decent employment and
preferential procurement; and ensuring spatial developments that promote proximity
to amenities by the aspirants.
