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dc.contributor.author | Engelbrecht, Christina Johanna![]() |
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dc.contributor.author | Phakula, Steven![]() |
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dc.contributor.author | Landman, Willem Adolf![]() |
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dc.contributor.author | Engelbrecht, Francois A.![]() |
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dc.date.accessioned | 2022-08-22T12:36:42Z | |
dc.date.available | 2022-08-22T12:36:42Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2021-02 | |
dc.description.abstract | The NCEP CFSv2 and ECMWF hindcasts are used to explore the deterministic subseasonal predictability of the 850-hPa circulation of a large domain over the Atlantic and Indian Oceans that is relevant to the weather and climate of the southern African region. For NCEP CFSv2, 12 years of hindcasts, starting on 1 January 1999 and initialized daily for four ensemble members up to 31 December 2010 are verified against ERA-Interim reanalysis data. For ECMWF, 20 years of hindcasts (1995–2014), initialized once a month for all the months of the year are employed in a parallel analysis to investigate the predictability of the 850-hPa circulation. The ensemble mean for 7-day moving averages is used to assess the prediction skill for all the start dates in each month of the year, with a focus on the start dates in each month that are representative of the week-3 and week-4 hindcasts. The correlation between the anomaly patterns over the study domain shows skill over persistence up into the week-3 hindcasts for some months. The spatial distribution of the correlation between the anomaly patterns show skill over persistence to notably reduce over the domain by week 3. A prominent area where prediction skill survives the longest, occur over central South America and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean. | en_US |
dc.description.department | Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology | en_US |
dc.description.librarian | dm2022 | en_US |
dc.description.sponsorship | NRF | en_US |
dc.description.uri | https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/wefo-overview.xml | en_US |
dc.identifier.citation | Engelbrecht, Christien & Phakula, Steven & Landman, Willem & Engelbrecht, Francois. (2021). Subseasonal Deterministic Prediction Skill of Low-Level Geopotential Height Affecting Southern Africa. Weather and Forecasting. 36. 1-1. 10.1175/WAF-D-20-0008.1. | en_US |
dc.identifier.issn | 1520-0434 (online) | |
dc.identifier.issn | 0882-8156 (print) | |
dc.identifier.other | 10.1175/WAF-D-20-0008.1 | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://repository.up.ac.za/handle/2263/86909 | |
dc.language.iso | en | en_US |
dc.publisher | Universitätsverlag Potsdam | en_US |
dc.rights | © 2021 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses). | en_US |
dc.subject | Climate prediction | en_US |
dc.subject | Ensembles | en_US |
dc.subject | Forecast verification/skill | en_US |
dc.subject | Hindcasts | en_US |
dc.subject | Operational forecasting | en_US |
dc.subject | Seasonal forecasting | en_US |
dc.title | Subseasonal deterministic prediction skill of low-level geopotential height affecting southern Africa | en_US |
dc.type | Article | en_US |