Subseasonal deterministic prediction skill of low-level geopotential height affecting southern Africa

Show simple item record Engelbrecht, Christien J. Phakula, Steven Landman, Willem Adolf Engelbrecht, Francois A. 2022-08-22T12:36:42Z 2022-08-22T12:36:42Z 2021-02
dc.description.abstract The NCEP CFSv2 and ECMWF hindcasts are used to explore the deterministic subseasonal predictability of the 850-hPa circulation of a large domain over the Atlantic and Indian Oceans that is relevant to the weather and climate of the southern African region. For NCEP CFSv2, 12 years of hindcasts, starting on 1 January 1999 and initialized daily for four ensemble members up to 31 December 2010 are verified against ERA-Interim reanalysis data. For ECMWF, 20 years of hindcasts (1995–2014), initialized once a month for all the months of the year are employed in a parallel analysis to investigate the predictability of the 850-hPa circulation. The ensemble mean for 7-day moving averages is used to assess the prediction skill for all the start dates in each month of the year, with a focus on the start dates in each month that are representative of the week-3 and week-4 hindcasts. The correlation between the anomaly patterns over the study domain shows skill over persistence up into the week-3 hindcasts for some months. The spatial distribution of the correlation between the anomaly patterns show skill over persistence to notably reduce over the domain by week 3. A prominent area where prediction skill survives the longest, occur over central South America and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean. en_US
dc.description.department Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology en_US
dc.description.librarian dm2022 en_US
dc.description.sponsorship NRF en_US
dc.description.uri en_US
dc.identifier.citation Engelbrecht, Christien & Phakula, Steven & Landman, Willem & Engelbrecht, Francois. (2021). Subseasonal Deterministic Prediction Skill of Low-Level Geopotential Height Affecting Southern Africa. Weather and Forecasting. 36. 1-1. 10.1175/WAF-D-20-0008.1. en_US
dc.identifier.issn 1520-0434 (online)
dc.identifier.issn 0882-8156 (print)
dc.identifier.other 10.1175/WAF-D-20-0008.1
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher Universitätsverlag Potsdam en_US
dc.rights © 2021 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy ( en_US
dc.subject Climate prediction en_US
dc.subject Ensembles en_US
dc.subject Forecast verification/skill en_US
dc.subject Hindcasts en_US
dc.subject Operational forecasting en_US
dc.subject Seasonal forecasting en_US
dc.title Subseasonal deterministic prediction skill of low-level geopotential height affecting southern Africa en_US
dc.type Article en_US

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