Isentropic Analysis as a Forecasting Tool in South Africa

Abstract

Forecasting short term changes in weather is and will remain a very important but also very difficult task. In order to provide a weather forecaster with the best possible tools to make an accurate weather forecast, it was decided to research the possibility of isentropic analysis methods for South African circumstances. This study introduces the basic concepts of isentropic analysis and the way to interpret variables on isentropic surfaces. Three case studies are presented where significant weather systems influenced the country's weather. In two of the cases heavy rainfall and flooding occurred and in the last case widespread moderate falls were reported. Results of these case studies prove to be very helpful in identifying rainfall areas as well as areas where heavier precipitation could be expected. Operational use of isentropic analysis is recommended.