The effects that sentiment in the SARB’s MPC narrative has on changes in the share prices of selected JSE-listed real-estate sector companies

Abstract

Narratives are motive-laden stories that human beings tell to create impressions in the listener’s mind. Due to their contagiousness, narratives may influence the thinking and decision-making of a large number of people in society. Both individuals and institutions use narratives to induce favourable behaviour in the target population with respect to their own objectives. Central banks use narratives to affect market participants’ understanding of the economy. The literature review revealed that market participants pay attention to the central bank’s narratives to form their future expectations. The purpose of this study was to explain the effects that the SARB narrative sentiment, as disseminated though the MPC’s statements, has on the property equity market. The interest rate announcement in the MPC statements was employed as a moderator variable in the research and its effect was measured along with the sentiment present in the narrative. The results showed that the relationship between the chosen variables was of inverse nature but there was no evidence of strong correlation. The inclusion of interest rate announcement was found to be increasing the strength of correlation between independent and dependent variable.