Abstract:
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic that emerged from Wuhan city in December
2019 overwhelmed health systems and paralyzed economies around the world. It became
the most important public health challenge facing mankind since the 1918 Spanish flu
pandemic. Various theoretical and empirical approaches have been designed and used to
gain insight into the transmission dynamics and control of the pandemic. This study
presents a primer for formulating, analysing and simulating mathematical models for
understanding the dynamics of COVID-19. Specifically, we introduce simple compartmental,
Kermack-McKendrick-type epidemic models with homogeneously- and
heterogeneously-mixed populations, an endemic model for assessing the potential
population-level impact of a hypothetical COVID-19 vaccine. We illustrate how some basic
non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 can be incorporated into the
epidemic model. A brief overview of other kinds of models that have been used to study
the dynamics of COVID-19, such as agent-based, network and statistical models, is also
presented. Possible extensions of the basic model, as well as open challenges associated
with the formulation and theoretical analysis of models for COVID-19 dynamics, are
suggested.
