Abstract:
To manage the increasing burden of dental diseases, a robust health system is essential. In
order to ensure the oral health system operates at an optimal level going into the future, a
forecast of the national shortfall of dentists and dental specialists in South Africa (SA) was
undertaken. There is currently a shortage of dentists and specialists in SA and given the
huge burden of dental diseases, there is a dire need to increase the number of these health
care workers. The aim was to determine the projected shortfall of dentists and specialists in
each of the nine provinces in SA. The projected shortfall was calculated based on the SA
Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) for each province. The estimate for the evaluation of
the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) for SA was obtained from the Institute of Health Metrics
and Evaluation (IHME) Global Burden of Disease website. For each province, age standardized DALYs were calculated with mid-year population estimates obtained from Statistics SA
2018. In order to reduce the existing human resources for health (HRH) inequity among the
provinces of SA, three scenarios were created focussing on attaining horizontal equity. The
best-case scenario estimates a shortfall of 430, 1252 and 1885 dentists and specialists in
2018, 2024 and 2030 respectively. In an optimistic scenario, the national shortfall was calculated at 733, 1540 and 2158 dentists and specialists for the years 2018, 2024 and 2030
respectively. In an aspirational scenario, shortfalls of 853 (2018), 1655 (2024) and 2267
(2030) dentists and specialists were forecasted. Access to oral health services should be
ensured through the optimum supply of trained dentists and specialists and the delivery of
appropriate oral health services. Thus, the roadmap provided for upscaling the oral health
services recognizes the influence of both demand and supply factors on the pursuit of
equity.
