Abstract:
To achieve the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, rapid decarbonisation of all economic sectors is required, including aviation. Airlines looking to reduce their carbon footprints could create a substantial demand-pull for biomass-based fuels, perceived to be ‘low carbon’, which may come with significant sustainability risks. This study provides an assessment of the current and future production potential for sustainable biofuel production in sub-Saharan Africa, in an effort to understand the region’s potential contribution to a global market for sustainable aviation fuels. This requires a systems analysis approach to estimating the availability of biomass for producing biofuel in general and aviation biofuel in particular. FAO/IIASA’s ‘Agro-ecological zones’ models using the latest available spatial environmental data and feedstock requirement information, additionally integrating strict sustainability criteria based on the Roundtable for Sustainable Biomaterials allow us to identify technical biofuel production potentials based on optimisation of “remain” land that is not needed for current or future food production or biodiversity conservation and does not hold significant carbon stocks. Results indicate that following strict sustainability criteria the sub-continent can produce a significant amount of biofuels from energy crops. However, by 2050, yields are expected to decline for some energy crops, due to a combination of adverse impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity and reduced land availability.
