The need for a provincial land use and travel forecasting model

Abstract

Western Cape has 6,2 million people and is one of the most diverse, progressive, and economically strong regions in the country. Although the City of Cape Town has two-thirds of the provincial population and employment, it is only 2% of the province’s land area. Cape Town’s status as a major port in southern Africa emphasises the importance of efficient goods movement for the region’s economic health. Western Cape Government’s role has increased in recent years, as part of the need for improved transport and land-use planning to stimulate and accommodate economic growth. Thus, the provincial Department of Transport and Public Works (DTPW) is expanding its role in infrastructure management and development and taking a more forward-looking approach to collaborative regional planning. In much of the world, transport decisions have historically been made based on political considerations, with little focus on the impact on system performance. But this is changing as governments learn how estimates of land-use and transport demand provide insights for sustainable design. Models of transport and land use provide information for decision-makers to achieve comprehensive and coordinated planning across sectors, on a continuous basis. DTPW decided to develop such a tool to support performance-based planning. This data will drive the development of policies, procedures, and methods that guide the province’s future land-use and transport systems. This requires an integrated model system to forecast personal travel, goods movement, and land development together.