Impact of climate change on crop production and potential adaptive measures in the Olifants catchment, South Africa

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dc.contributor.author Olabanji, Mary Funke
dc.contributor.author Ndarana, Thando
dc.contributor.author Davis, Nerhene
dc.date.accessioned 2021-09-15T11:39:29Z
dc.date.available 2021-09-15T11:39:29Z
dc.date.issued 2021-01
dc.description.abstract Climate change is expected to substantially reduce future crop yields in South Africa, thus affecting food security and livelihood. Adaptation strategies need to be implemented to mitigate the effect of climate change-induced yield losses. In this paper, we used the WEAP-MABIA model, driven by six CORDEX climate change data for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, to quantify the effect of climate change on several key crops, namely maize, soya beans, dry beans, and sunflower, in the Olifants catchment. The study further investigated climate change adaptation such as the effects of changing planting dates with the application of full irrigation, rainwater harvesting, deficit irrigation method, and the application of efficient irrigation devices on reducing the impact of climate change on crop production. The results show that average monthly temperature is expected to increase by 1 ◦C to 5 ◦C while a reduction in precipitation ranging between 2.5% to 58.7% is projected for both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 relative to the baseline climate for 1976–2005, respectively. The results also reveal that increased temperature and decreased precipitation during planting seasons are expected to increase crop water requirements. A steady decline in crop yield ranging between 19–65%, 11–38%, 16–42%, and 5–30% for maize, soya beans, dry beans, and sunflower, respectively, is also projected under both RCPs climate change scenarios. The study concludes that adaptation measures such as the integration of changing planting dates with full irrigation application and the use of rainwater harvest will help improve current and future crop production under the impact of climate change. en_ZA
dc.description.department Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology en_ZA
dc.description.librarian pm2021 en_ZA
dc.description.sponsorship The Nation Research foundation-The World Academy of Science (NRF-TWAS) en_ZA
dc.description.uri http://www.mdpi.com/journal/climate en_ZA
dc.identifier.citation Olabanji, M.F.; Ndarana, T.; Davis, N. Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production and Potential Adaptive Measures in the Olifants Catchment, South Africa. Climate 2021, 9, 6. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli9010006. en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn 2225-1154 (online)
dc.identifier.other 10.3390/cli9010006
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2263/81862
dc.language.iso en en_ZA
dc.publisher MDPI en_ZA
dc.rights © 2020 by the authors. Licensee: MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license. en_ZA
dc.subject Climate change en_ZA
dc.subject Crop yield en_ZA
dc.subject Adaptation strategies en_ZA
dc.subject Water requirement en_ZA
dc.subject WEAP-MABIA model en_ZA
dc.title Impact of climate change on crop production and potential adaptive measures in the Olifants catchment, South Africa en_ZA
dc.type Article en_ZA


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