National and regional impacts of an increase in value-added tax : a CGE analysis for South Africa

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dc.contributor.author Roos, Elizabeth Lousia
dc.contributor.author Horridge, J. Mark
dc.contributor.author Van Heerden, J.H. (Jan Horn), 1957-
dc.contributor.author Adams, Philip D.
dc.contributor.author Bohlmann, Heinrich R.
dc.contributor.author Kobe, Kgatedi Kenneth
dc.contributor.author Vumbukani-Lepolesa, Bokang
dc.date.accessioned 2021-08-31T10:01:48Z
dc.date.issued 2020-03
dc.description.abstract The South African National Treasury expected a revenue shortfall of R48.2 billion in 2017/18 and proposed tax policy measures to raise an additional R36 billion in 2018/19. A key component to raise the additional revenue was a 1% point increase in the VAT rate to 15% effective from 1 April 2018. The increase in the VAT rate was not welcomed as it would increase the cost of living, especially for the poor. We investigate the potential economy-wide and regional impacts of raising VAT and increasing public spending on education and health. We do this by developing and applying a multi-regional model of the South African economy that includes detailed tax and spending features. In this model, when we increase VAT, the impacts are driven by the direct shock to the model, accompanied by differences in regional economic activity. We find that effects on GDP vary between regions but are generally negative. en_ZA
dc.description.department Economics en_ZA
dc.description.embargo 2021-12-23
dc.description.librarian hj2021 en_ZA
dc.description.uri https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/18136982 en_ZA
dc.identifier.citation Roos, E.L., Horridge, J.M., Van Heerden, J.H. et al. 2020, 'National and regional impacts of an increase in value-added tax: a CGE analysis for South Africa', South African Journal of Economics, vol. 88, no.1, pp. 90-120. en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn 0038-2280 (print)
dc.identifier.issn 1813-6982 (online)
dc.identifier.other 10.1111/saje.12240
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/2263/81552
dc.language.iso en en_ZA
dc.publisher Wiley en_ZA
dc.rights © 2019 Economic Society of South Africa. This is the pre-peer reviewed version of the following article : 'National and regional impacts of an increase in value-added tax: a CGE analysis for South Africa', South African Journal of Economics, vol. 88, no.1, pp. 90-120, 2020, doi : 10.1111/saje.12240. The definite version is available at : https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/18136982. en_ZA
dc.subject Value added tax (VAT) en_ZA
dc.subject Gross domestic product (GDP) en_ZA
dc.subject South Africa (SA) en_ZA
dc.subject National impact en_ZA
dc.subject Regional impact en_ZA
dc.title National and regional impacts of an increase in value-added tax : a CGE analysis for South Africa en_ZA
dc.type Postprint Article en_ZA


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