Ecological indicators for climate change

Abstract

The evidence of the effects of human mediated climate change is already evident in most ecosystems. The IPCC projects that there could be as much as a 4˚C increase in global average temperatures by the end of this century. In Mpumalanga the average temperature is projected to increase by as much as 2.8˚C, and annual precipitation levels by as much as 60 mm. Climate change, along with other human mediated factors such as land use changes and the over exploitation of natural resources, will lead to increasing pressures on biodiversity. Anthropogenic climate change will have significant impacts on biodiversity. These include impacts on distribution, abundance and ecological interactions. It is important to adopt biodiversity monitoring programs to understand the effects of anthropogenic climate change on the biota, which will enable best practice management and conservation of biodiversity. So far however, very few existing monitoring programs allow for the detection of climate change effects, as shown by the European project EuMon and the South African National Biodiversity Institute. In a cost-constrained world, the efficient use of resources for conservation has become crucial in ensuring the success of mitigating the effects of global change. Two methods of identifying indicators for the assessment of the effects of climate change on biodiversity were developed. The first method included the development of a pragmatic approach to the identification of suitable indicators and was tested in the Mpumalanga province. This approach identifies suitable species and ecosystem indicators, by subjecting candidate indicator candidates through a series of filters. The second method used a combination of climate and biodiversity data to identify indicators in areas of greatest and least climatic change within the Mpumalanga province. It is recommended that a combination of both methods be used, in order to be most useful in informing current and future monitoring programs.